So, may get some Aurora out of this after all.
Before people go bonkers I'm sure this doesn't mean the end of the world; it's still going to be weaker than if it was pointed absolutely directly at earth.
And while it's the largest ever recorded by a huge margin, we've only really been "recording" flares in a meaningful way for about 25-30 years or so.
I'm sure humanity has survived hundreds of hits like this :-)
The largest ever was an X20 on February 2, 2001, which wasn't pointed at Earth at all and I suspect most people didn't exactly notice anything.
These guys have a history of being far more accurate than US Government agencies, will take them a while before they issue a CME impact forecast.
1 posted on
11/04/2003 6:04:20 PM PST by
John H K
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To: John H K
The X18+ solar flare has been associated with a high velocity FULL HALO coronal mass ejection. There IS an Earthward directed component. Estimated plane of sky velocity for this event is 2381 km/sec, although it is probable the true velocity is above 2400 km/sec because there is some evidence for acceleration of the CME. Ok...now explain this in terms that I might understand, please!
2 posted on
11/04/2003 6:09:46 PM PST by
Heff
(NJ Needs Auto Insurance reform!!!!!)
To: John H K
8 posted on
11/04/2003 6:15:57 PM PST by
Davea
To: John H K
Dig your holes! We're all going to DIE!
10 posted on
11/04/2003 6:16:17 PM PST by
scab4faa
(Can't sleep.. the clowns will eat me... Can't sleep.. the clowns will eat me... Can't sleep..)
To: John H K
I was kind of hoping it would be directed right at Earth, I wanted to see the Aurora in Oklahoma. Didn't see a thing during the other events.
12 posted on
11/04/2003 6:17:25 PM PST by
Brett66
To: John H K
Break out the SPF 5,000.
13 posted on
11/04/2003 6:17:52 PM PST by
mewzilla
To: John H K
Just curious - the really active sunspot groups will be back around the sun in a couple of weeks. What have amateur astronomers using small scopes equipped with hydrogen alpha filters been seeing from these solar events? Does it make sense to try and get my hands on a filter in case the sun is still jumpin' (scientific term) in a few weeks?
14 posted on
11/04/2003 6:17:53 PM PST by
Zeppo
To: John H K
Repent all ye sinners, the day is drawn near...! :)
16 posted on
11/04/2003 6:21:05 PM PST by
Brian S
To: John H K
Man, My skin sure is dry and itchy lately.
To: John H K
I'm convinced.
SOUNDS like
another
sign in the heavens
for our era
to me.
24 posted on
11/04/2003 6:41:59 PM PST by
Quix
(DEFEAT the lying, deceptive, satanic, commie, leftist, globalist oligarchy 1 associate at a time)
To: John H K
It's all Bush's fault.
26 posted on
11/04/2003 6:43:22 PM PST by
jimkress
(America has become Soviet Union Lite)
To: John H K
29 posted on
11/04/2003 6:44:55 PM PST by
tgslTakoma
(Prayers sent for our troops in harm's way, and for those who have been killed.)
To: John H K
Well, at least with the graph from the satellite X-ray sensors it appeared to be an X-20 class event to me. Besides the X-18 last week, the largest I've recorded was back in the mid-90's with an X-8 as I recall (lot of data to sift thru to find the data plot.) Last week was the quickest shock wave I can recall, less than 24hrs to impact (typical 36-48hr.) Too bad the satellite sensors are saturated right now, I would like to see the shock wave hit on the solar wind speed indicator. Aurora? Still depends on the interplanitary magnetic field polarity (Bz) when the shock wave hits. Pretty certain there will be AU in the hi-latitudes. Question is, will the AU oval go south? Very interesting propagation effects last week on the VHF bands. Australia (VK6 & VK8) into the PNW on 50mHz late afternoon 31 October. Very unusual for so late in the solar Cycle. I've been following the data stream for 30 years myself as it is related to radio propagation (WWV rpts, then Web-data in the 90's.)
Regards, 6M op in CN85
To: John H K
When is this supposed to take place?
32 posted on
11/04/2003 6:55:49 PM PST by
yonif
("If I Forget Thee, O Jerusalem, Let My Right Hand Wither" - Psalms 137:5)
To: John H K
"Big sunspot thing coming Earth's way. What's it all mean for me? What's it all mean for me? Do I have to still finish my Algebra homework?"
33 posted on
11/04/2003 6:56:25 PM PST by
SamAdams76
(201.6 (-98.4) Homestretch to 200)
To: Big Giant Head; listenhillary
In case you're interested :-)
35 posted on
11/04/2003 7:01:54 PM PST by
Marie Antoinette
(Happily repopulating the midwest since 1991!)
To: John H K
Scarey.
I'll close my venetian blinds and be sure to wear at least a 15 SPF sunscreen out doors this week.
36 posted on
11/04/2003 7:04:25 PM PST by
Jorge
To: John H K; yonif
As usual: Cloudy here in E. Wisconsin. No break since before this current spate of CMEs began. Sigh.
To keep up on solar activity and auroras, visit Spaceweather.com.
SOHO site calls it an "X-whatever" flare!
39 posted on
11/04/2003 7:12:48 PM PST by
petuniasevan
(No costume is complete without cat hair.)
To: Victoria Delsoul; PatrickHenry; Quila; Rudder; donh; VadeRetro; RadioAstronomer; Travis McGee; ...
40 posted on
11/04/2003 7:14:12 PM PST by
Sabertooth
(No Drivers' Licences for Illegal Aliens. Petition SB60. http://www.saveourlicense.com/n_home.htm)
To: John H K
Gaaaah! Only one thing to do!
To: John H K
Global warming!
48 posted on
11/04/2003 7:25:45 PM PST by
Imal
(After Iraq, let's liberate California.)
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