Posted on 11/03/2003 2:12:28 PM PST by anotherview
Nov. 3, 2003
The Region: Embracing reality
By BARRY RUBIN
Wishful thinking is the enemy of policymakers and analysts. It brings the hope that is vital to life but also may increase the very risks it seeks to banish. What is the proper mixture of optimism and pessimism as we look at the region today?
First, let me add some important details. Too many people confuse their ideology or personal preferences with a sober assessment of a given political situation. Nowadays, it is unfortunately fashionable to rush to classify someone according to their national or ethnic background – as well as political leanings – in considering what they have to say.
Too often in these supposedly enlightened times, the validity of arguments or evidence is ignored in the rush to disqualify someone and close ears to their views. The assumption is that everyone has an agenda.
A good historical example of this problem is the treatment of the Soviet Union in intellectual circles for many decades. If someone wrote critically, the knee-jerk reaction was to label that person as right-wing, anti-Communist, or even a running dog of the capitalist-imperialist forces.
As a result, many truths were edited out of supposedly brilliant minds and people were unprepared to deal with the problems they faced, the events they witnessed, and the ultimate revelations that made them look foolish.
Israel has had experience with such shortcomings as well. The failure to predict the Egyptian-Syrian attack that opened the 1973 war is a narrower example, when assumptions ruled out the possibility of such an assault, or at least a willingness to act on the possibility.
Our biggest case, of course, was the peace process of the 1990s. Out of the best intentions and the highest of motives – those are usually the most dangerous ones – we misread what was happening. In other countries, people who made that error have clear consciences, go on to higher offices, and propose more of the same.
But in Israel, where the price has been paid in blood, only a few fools and knaves, whatever high-sounding compliments they give themselves or however much they are honored or financed from abroad – can go on acting as if nothing has happened.
Unfortunately, not only is the rest of the Middle East full of wishful thinking and ideologically based conclusions, the whole region is run on the basis of such an approach.
Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein followed this path to his own overthrow. Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat wants to give us more decades of war in the expectation of ultimate total victory. Syrian President Bashar Assad is dancing on the precipice as if he had a strong army and superpower ally to protect him. You can add onto this list.
When it comes to the world, there is a prevalent view that the Arab-Israeli conflict is quickly resolvable if only the will power and goodwill existed to do so.
In a real sense, the 1990s was a test of that theory and the experiment failed. After three years of warfare, Western debate is now mainly over who is to blame: Israel, the Palestinians, or both.
The facts say the Palestinians. Many find it superficially fair or safe to say both. A recent European Union poll, however, shows about 60 percent of that continent's people say Israel is a larger threat to world peace than any of 15 dictatorships and terrorism sponsors, revealing what many people there think based on media and sometimes political conditioning. Obviously, the Arab and Muslim world believes this even more thoroughly.
BUT THESE ideas will not succeed in accomplishing anything – except misleading the masses and keeping demagogic Arab dictatorships in power – because they are at odds with reality. The rulers, of course, are aware of this distinction and are not eager for war or confrontation with Israel.
Which brings us back to the main point. The best thing to be said about the current situation is how favorable it is on a regional level. For the first time in a half century, Israel does not face the prospect of a war with other states.
Equally, interstate warfare involving Arab states or Iran is reduced, which benefits everyone in the region. This is due only in small measure to the US overthrow of Saddam – though that event contributed to such an outcome – as it is the result of longer-term factors.
This is a wonderful development which should not be taken for granted. It arose from Israeli victories in several wars and its military superiority, the Soviet Union's collapse, the emergence of the United States as sole superpower, Arab regimes' fear of domestic threats, the experience of Iraqi aggression against its neighbors, and other reasons.
The Israel-Palestinian peace process was also a contributing factor.
With the Palestinian leadership moved to the West Bank and Gaza Strip, the Arab states came to view the issue as Israel's problem rather than their own.
And since Arafat signed a peace document with Israel, Arab states did not feel that they need to continue fighting any wars.
Of course, the drawback is their non-public means of self-expression and the financing or sponsorship of anti-Israel terrorism. This is what Syria, Saudi Arabia, Libya, and non-Arab Iran do, as well as what Lebanon and Egypt do not try to stop.
Yet these policies are having some slight additional costs. In the last few days, the US has announced two significant but relatively unnoticed policy shifts.
The State Department declared that it had no objections to congressional sanctions against Syria, a sign of increasing displeasure with that country's adventurous policies including becoming a state sponsor of terrorism against American forces in Iraq.
In addition, the US government let it be known that it is giving up efforts to promote actively an Israel-Palestinian process or to pressure Israel, until the Palestinian leadership takes serious anti-terrorist steps.
The writer is director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center of the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya.
Yep, blowing up that American convoy was really dumb. Now the Palies figure it out. Disarming the terror groups would aid the Palestinian cause.
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