The only logical way to reconcile Sagan's math with Fermi's observation is the Mead principle (also found in the Federation's constitution), the principle of "non-interference."
That’s not the only logical way to reconcile the conundrum.
Another reasonable explanation could be that the distances involved in interstellar (let alone intergallactic) travel is not as easily overcome in the real world as it is in the realm of science fiction.
In other words, they are out there (or were or will be) and we’ll never know about them. And vice versa.
I thought High Definition TV should have gotten some sort of award.