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To: RadioAstronomer
"I don't think I completely agree. Machines fail over time, and self-replicating ones would have replicating errors over time. Also, why would a race use the extremely valuable resources of their solar system to create one-way journeys that would give zero return for their effort?"

I don't think I understand. For a very small investment, a hypothetical civilization could launch, say, 100 Von Neumann robots (jumbo sized). Upon reaching their target star, the instructions are: gather all available data and then build a copy (scion) of yourself; dump your memory into it and then BOTH head at random to another pair of stars.

The payoff comes when one--inevitably--wanders home, bearing the complete data collected by all of its ancestors. Remember, we are positing very-long-life civilizations, with long-term views. This is a tautology; if it has taken you 100,000 years to reach the level of sophistication needed for this plan, you do not expect to wink out in 100 years and your civilization can afford to wait a few thousand years for a probe or two to come home.

In principle, only one probe might be needed--but occasionally probes will be destroyed, find no raw materials, etc. So you should start with several.

For an ultra-advanced civilization, this should be easy as 'pi'.

Even at 0.05"c", there has been ample time for every star in the galaxy to be visited. If there are multiple advanced civilizations, there should be a traffic jam. In particular, at Sol. And if they are using nano probes, it should be even more certain that aliens will land on the White House lawn. So where are they?

My answer: they are not anywhere. Else we would see them.

--Boris

185 posted on 11/04/2003 7:03:04 AM PST by boris (The deadliest Weapon of Mass Destruction in History is a Leftist With a Word Processor)
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To: boris
I still don't see it. Even at .05c (~9000 miles/second), it would take longer than a lifetime to just get to the nearest star, much less find the suitable resources to build more machines and return etc. Where does the delta-V come from? Remember you have to escape every stellar gravity well for each machine. The other rub, is with sufficiently advanced telescopes, do you need to send the probes just in case one wanders back someday thousands of years in the future?
190 posted on 11/04/2003 7:14:56 AM PST by RadioAstronomer
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