The Actual Freaking Definition Of The Phrase 'No-Brainer' - Mogambo Guru Commentary

The Daily Reckoning ^ | 10/29/03 | Richard Daughty

[arete]

. . . I see the result of them and their damned stupid cockamamie theories, and their damned stupid econometric models, and their damned stupid monstrously over-inflated egos, thinking they could make an healthy economy out of fraud and printing money, when not one other country in the history of the world has ever done it, and all of them tried to print their way of their stinking mess and none of them could do it! But Alan Greenspan, and Ben Bernanke, and all those Fed governors, and Fed big shots, and advisors, and researchers, and concerned bank presidents, and Congressperson meddlers, and computers, and computer models, and miscellaneous hangers-on and loudmouth bores, all smugly thinking that now - now! - after all these wasted centuries, now will our geniuses in charge make a vibrant, healthy economy based on fraud and printing money, and then forever preventing the collapse they so justifiably earned, when, as I said, everybody in all of history has else has already tried it, and NOT ONE OF THEM EVER CAME CLOSE!

And so killing off the old people and the disabled people and all the rest of those people gobbling up expensive government-provided money and services would instantly alleviate the stress on those systems. And then Social Security would always be solvent, since retirees would all be dead, and Medicare would always have enough money, since the sick would all be dead, too. And those smelly homeless people would all be dead, and not creating an unsightly mess by sleeping on the sidewalk!

I am nevertheless absolutely SURE that the rise in refinancing activity is a coincident indicator of the fall in the collective IQ of Americans, which has been falling for so long, as indicated by the increasingly stupid ideas we are now believing as a nation, that I figure the average IQ of Americans is pretty much down there in the gerbil range, without, you know, insulting gerbils, because to tell the truth very few gerbils go deeper into debt by refinancing their cages to buy a new exercise wheel, or for whatever it is that gerbils spend their discretionary cash on.

the Fed and the banks and all the banks all over the world have told so many lies, and changed so many things to suit themselves, and committed so many blatant frauds and crimes against economic nature that I am not sure of anything anymore.

The Guru isn't pulling any punches this week. Getting rid of the old, poor and disabled isn't as far from reality as you may think either.

Richard W.

[arete]

FYI

Comments and opinions welcome.

Richard W.

[Always Right]

Comments and opinions welcome.

Well, I have to compliment you. That is the looniest, fear-mongering, conspiracy-driven, gold-pushing garbage you have posted yet. You are going off the deep end.

[Cicero]

I was going to post this earlier this evening. One of his great rants.

Freepers who are impatient about economic matters should search the article for Clark and read that part to see what he has to say about the presidential candidates, Clark and Lieberman. It's priceless.

[lelio]

- Kurt Richebächer, one of the toppest of the top dogs in the realm of Austrian-type economics, is a glum as I. In his latest screed, he writes, "Focusing strictly on the hard economic data, like employment, personal income, production, business fixed investment and profits, we completely fail to see any recovery at all in the United States. Measured by the hard economic data of employment, income growth, production and new orders, the U.S. economy is at best stagnating, if not weakening. Its apparent acceleration has its main causes in sharply higher government spending and the big deflator for business investment in computers."

Hadn't heard of Kurt. A quick google search on his name gets some articles.

Ponzi Economy is pretty good. Some insightful comments:

To repeat: Investment in tangible assets is paramount in creating everything that is decisive in generating our wealth and raising our living standards. Given the low levels of saving and investment in the United States, American policymakers and economists in recent years have elevated productivity growth to the single most important achievement of an economy. But just by itself, productivity growth creates only unemployment. It is the normally associated capital spending that makes for the necessary, simultaneous demand and employment growth.

This simple recognition - gross lack of saving and capital formation - is really at the root of our controversial and highly critical view of the U.S. economy's sanity and vitality. True, its growth rate has been the highest among the industrial countries for years. But it has all the time been economic growth of the most miserable quality. The striking hallmarks of this extremely poor quality were collapsing savings, low rates of business fixed investment, a profit carnage that began at the height of the boom, exploding consumer and business debts and an exploding trade deficit.

Today's economists have at their disposal information in quantity and speed as never before. But reading numerous reports, we have the impression that very few are making use of it.

[Atlas Sneezed]

Will buying Gold help me to write more concisely?

[razorback-bert]

mark

[donmeaker]

When considering gold, remember, you are speculating, not investing. You are not buying something that will make money by being more productive, but rather betting that someone will be forced or fooled into buying it at a higher price than the price that you paid.

Consider: investigate the time it takes to open a new gold mine. Investigate the price at which some gold mines shut down because they were not economical. If it takes 3 years to open a gold mine, and it shut down at 450 an ounce, then 3 years after the price of gold breaks 450 an ounce, gold will be driven down toward 450 an ounce. You can make money, but it is risky, and you can lose money if you guess wrong on how long it takes new supply to come in. For example if gold goes up so high that people melt down jewelry, that is a significant source of supply that will have very little start time.

The demand in gold changes quickly. Uncertainty drives it, and you can not predict uncertainty with any certainty. When things get better, or worse, they happen very very quickly.

Over the long haul, the key to having the golden touch is to be careful what you touch. Diversify, unless you have inside information that is legally obtained. Even then, recognize that your information is inside one company, not inside its competitors or customers.

Good luck.

[narby]

I've seen a lot better end-of-the-world screeds.

[WackyKat]

Debbie Holly, my beautiful and talented sister in law, makes her living selling soft-sculptures, mostly whimsical flamingos in comical outfits, at arts and crafts shows. And when you talk about whimsy, you know that these are sales that depend on the most discretionary of discretionary income. So how is the market for whimsy? She reports that sales are soft, and have been getting softer for quite a while now, and all the other vendors are reporting sales that mostly range from poor to bad to horrid to "losing money just by showing up."

I am in near panic upon hearing that the vaunted Whimsical Flamingo index has gone south. The collapse of the dollar and street rioting are surely imminent.

[imawit]

Getting rid of the old, poor and disabled

The first steps have already been taken. You're not old enough to retire until 67 now and they've already tried to make it 72.

[arete]

You haven't heard of Kurt Richebächer before? Yikes. He's been writing some really good and important stuff lately.

Richard W.

[arete]

The first steps have already been taken.

Retirement is going to mean being pushed over the edge of the economic cliff. You can count on it.

Richard W.

[StopGlobalWhining]

Gold Reserves Looted from Venezuela's Central Bank

Want to know if Venezuela still has any gold reserves left? Then don't look for it in the country's Central Bank anymore. Central Bank (BCV) gold reserves have been trucked to the Caracas Fuerte Tiuna army garrison under armed escort by loyalist military officers who support strongman Hugo Chavez in his refusal to allow free and democratic elections.

[sourcery]

That is the looniest, fear-mongering, conspiracy-driven, gold-pushing garbage you have posted yet. You are going off the deep end.

When the level of anger against the contrarian point of view reaches the level of righteous indignation, and those who used to at least be tolerant start to heap ridicule upon you, that's when you know a significant trend change cannot be that far off.

[AZLiberty]

Investment in tangible assets is paramount in creating everything that is decisive in generating our wealth and raising our living standards.

As it turns out, due to increases in total factor productivity, we need less of every kind of resource to make ever larger quantities of ever better goods and services. Commercial real estate is down. Steel is down. You name the tangible industrial good, it's down in real terms over the last 20 years. Now maybe we're due for a "correction", but the fundamentals underlying this trend -- now silicon technology, soon biotechnology -- are still going the same direction.

Betting against Moore's Law and its biological counterparts is a risky bet.

[ThePythonicCow]

you are speculating, not investing

Name calling. So if I invest, it's less risky? Were the folks who bought the various NASDAQ shares from me in 1998 and 1999 speculating or investing?

Is a sound financial basis for our money, a basis that the govenment can't just destroy with more fiat paper, a speculation or an investment?

That's ok - keep thinking like this. I will need someone to sell my gold shares to, in a few years.

[NewRomeTacitus]

"Getting rid of the old, poor and disabled isn't as far from reality as you may think."

I will not stoop to the level of a Frenchman.

Seriously, putting all of one's hopes into one or two investments is lunacy. Diversification and careful adjustments over time over the long run still seems the wisest course. My "boys" where I help keep the machines humming have been succeeding with this basic philosophy since WWII ended. Only J.C. Bradford outperformed us but they let themselves get absorbed and disolved when their board couldn't resist takeover plunder.
It wouldn't be right to name my employer here but their commercials are constantly played during the daytime financial-block programming on cable. What the ads don't tell you is that despite overwhelming pressures from all sides this brokerage's bottom line is clean because of strict adherence to law and SEC regs and requirements. That those increasingly rigid requirements haven't yet harmed profitability is nearly miraculous (thanks Enron and PW). We have talented people doing their best with other people's earnings and hopes. When the press attempts to villify all financial managers as cheap hucksters on the make I get very upset knowing how much effort these guys devote to exceeding their clients' expectations.

[lelio]

You haven't heard of Kurt Richebächer before? Yikes.

I only really have a passing interest in the subject ... I know I should pay more attention to this but never get around to it. My attitude is probably how economic hoaxes can continue on.

[arete]

Well said and I am glad to hear that there are still people in the business who are still working for their clients. I'm sure that you know how the financial business works and it is just natural for many crooks and con artists to migrate to where the money is. Unfortately, we have been experiencing a long parade of them and now we are going to be hearing more about Tyco and mutual fund timing.

Richard W.