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The current El Nino is making things real interesting. Of course, I think it will fall apart by next March and further muddy the waters by only making 2010 the third-warmest year of all time. But a guy can hope. I really don't want the world to get any warmer, but to prove a point...

And win your bet. You are on the record here as saying that the next large El Nino would exceed 1998 measured by satellite (don't have the link, I'll have to dig it up). But let's go back to earlier in the thread where you said:

Multiple lines of evidence support that ocean circulation was the main driver. We do not have a similar situation now.

If PDO is not the main driver, then why is it getting cooler now that PDO has switched to negative? The correlation is nearly perfect, positive PDO from 77 to 98, and trending negative since then.

Here's UAH MSU for the record, we're waiting for 0.8 and you still have almost 4 years left.

The current El Nino is making things real interesting. Of course, I think it will fall apart by next March and further muddy the waters by only making 2010 the third-warmest year of all time. But a guy can hope. I really don't want the world to get any warmer, but to prove a point...

And win your bet.

I know, I've only got until 2013.

You are on the record here as saying that the next large El Nino would exceed 1998 measured by satellite (don't have the link, I'll have to dig it up).

Actually, no, I've said the next year with a moderate-to-large El Nino would make that year the record-breaker in all three surface indices (NOAA, GISS, Hadley CRU). Hadley CRU may not be available for awhile. This El Nino is in the minor-to-moderate range. I think I told Wonder Warthog that if April 2009 - March 2010 could be analyzed, I would expect that 12-month period to be warmer than any other 12-month period in the entire instrumental record. But the El Nino effects could get split between two calendar years, and thus my pessimism if the current episode fades early in 2010.

But let's go back to earlier in the thread where you said:

Multiple lines of evidence support that ocean circulation was the main driver. We do not have a similar situation now.

If PDO is not the main driver, then why is it getting cooler now that PDO has switched to negative? The correlation is nearly perfect, positive PDO from 77 to 98, and trending negative since then.

Several factors.
1) Erroneous perception of "cooler". 2005 was just barely under 1998 by Hadley and NOAA (with no El Nino*); GISS had it warmer. 1/10 of a degree higher in 2005, and there'd be none of this ridiculous talk of a 10-year cooling trend.
2) Reduced solar irradiance during an extended solar minimum.
3) Fairly strong La Nina starting in 2007 (ASO) extending to 2008 (AMJ); because of lag effects, 2008 was cooler than 2007. Very, very critical: though the La Nina episode officially ended in AMJ 2008, La Nina conditions (ONI in Nino 3.4) re-emerged through MAM 2009. ONI was never above 0 from MAM 2007 to MAM 2009. That's a long cool stretch. And that could have been related to the negative PDO. Lean and Rind (below) don't say anything about the PDO. If we're still in a negative PDO phase now, then this El Nino is bucking the influence.

Support:

How will Earth’s surface temperature change in future decades?

* You know, I just noticed something. Lag time is important. There was a minor El Nino episode in 2004 (ONI in El Nino 3.4 never got over 0.9). But it was nine 3-month periods long (with ONI positive for a bit longer). It was the remnant warming from this minor El Nino, superposed on the general warming trend, that allowed 2005 to get close to 1998.

TWT.