MODEL BUILDING: Climate models are filled with assumptions, bad data, tweaks, simplifications, etc.
These parameters can be "tweaked" to force the model to show ANY desired result.
Projections of climate change are based on models and assumptions which
"are not only unknown, but unknowable within ranges relevant for policy-making"
Models fail to adequately handle clouds, water vapour, aerosols, precipitation,
ocean currents, solar effects, complex weather patterns, etc.
Model simulation of surface temperature appears to be little more than fortuitous
curve-fitting rather than a demonstration of human influence on global climate.
Temperature rise projections this century are "unknown and unknowable".
"Climate models [are] projections, story lines, [more aptly termed] fairy tales."
-- Hartwig Volz, geophysicist, RWE Research Laboratory, Germany
"Global warming projections [are] completely unrealistic...assuming extreme scenarios
of population growth and fossil fuel consumption"
-- S. Fred Singer, atmospheric physicist, University of Virginia, Environmental Policy Project
"The balance of evidence suggests that there has been no appreciable warming since 1940.
This would indicate that the human effects on climate must be quite small."
-- S. Fred Singer, atmospheric physicist, University of Virginia, Environmental Policy Project
PREDICTING THE PAST: Climate models, which serve as the basis for long-term climate predictions,
have clearly failed when tested against observed climate data.
Models fail to reproduce the known difference in trends between the
lower troposphere and surface temperatures over the past 20 years.
They don't show the actual amount of temperature change at the Earth's surface Models can't predict the recent past, let alone the long-term future.
Antarctica has been cooling since 1966, directly contradicting model results
that suggest that warming will be more pronounced in the Earth's polar regions. -- Nature magazine
the Antarctic ice sheet is expanding rather than shrinking,
contrary to what global-warming enthusiasts would have us believe. -- Science magazine
I'm thinking the global climate computer models are going to have to be "tweaked" some more ;-)
I remember seeing somewhere that the Mann 'hockey stick' curve was derived by stitching together selected data from uncorrelatable sources from before versus after the turn of the 20th century and then skewing the trendline to the limit of improbability to appear to agree with the global-warministas' agenda, something which is referred to as 'lying with statistics' by non-charlatans.
My favorite example of the weakness of these atmospheric models is how Carl Sagan made a fool out of himself after the first Gulf War, predicting a "nuclear winter" from the burning oil wells in Kuwait. These were of course the same models he was using to predict other doomsday scenarios.