Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch

Solar-Terrestrial Dispatch ^ | October 27, 2003

[John H K]

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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

WATCH UPDATED: 17:00 UTC, 27 OCTOBER 2003

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** UPDATED TO INCLUDE NEW PREDICTIVE INFORMATION **

VALID BEGINNING AT: 19:00 UTC ON 27 OCTOBER VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 29 OCTOBER

HIGH RISK PERIOD: 28 OCTOBER (UTC DAYS) MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 27 - 29 OCTOBER

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 20, 50, 30, 25 (27 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE TO HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 18 TO 24 HOURS MINOR BELT = 24 TO 36 HOURS

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO TO WYOMING TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA TO IOWA TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO NORTHERN INDIANA TO OHIO TO PENNSYLVANIA TO NEW JERSEY.

ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

EXTREME NORTHERN FRANCE TO BELGIUM TO CENTRAL GERMANY TO NORTHERN POLAND TO LITHUANIA TO LATVIA TO NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA.

NEW ZEALAND AND EXTREME SOUTHERN (PARTICULARLY SOUTHEASTERN) REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

SYNOPSIS...

UPDATE: Analysis of the second major coronal mass ejection observed on Sunday reveals that mass from that disturbance is directed Earthward, possibly at a fairly high velocity. If true, impact of this CME could arrive in the early UTC hours of 28 October (target time at the present time is ~03:00 UTC on 28 October). The arrival of this disturbance could result in periods of strong geomagnetic and auroral storm activity if this prediction is correct. Our primary concern is the possible near-simultaneous impact of both coronal mass ejection disturbances from the two X-class flares of Sunday. If this occurs, predictions of lower activity will probably prove incorrect.

This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on 29 October. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html

PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO: http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

** End of Watch **

[John H K]

For the universal-time challenged, 0300 on the 28th is 10:00PM tonight.

This has nothing to do with the fictional "solar storm" of last Friday. There were two more X-class flares over the weekend, and unlike the one on Thursday, parts of the mass ejected from these IS actually heading towards earth.

Basically what happened last week is on Thursday NOAA mistakenly thought a very powerful flare from one sunspot that wasn't pointed at earth was from another sunspot and WAS pointed on earth...they quickly corrected but an AP article on it was already out and bouncing around the media.

At about the same time NASA put out a press release about a giant solar storm in 1859; material from this release (the "perfect solar storm") began to be used by the media to describe the solar storm FRIDAY that was supposedly coming from the Thursday flare.

There had been some weak flares Wednesday that also generated CMEs that would impact Friday, so after NOAA corrected their mistake they still predicted some effects for Friday, thus the story lived on in the media.

When this weak CME impacted, almost nothing happened on earth other than some weak commo effects for Mt. Everest climbers and aircraft. A totally routine event that happens dozens of times a year.

But, anyway, there's a CHANCE of aurora tonight over much of the US that doesn't normally see them, if your skies are clear.

From reading the message board at their site they're now thinking it may be more powerful than even they have predicted.

Arrival times of CMEs are difficult to predict and it may be well before or after 10PM.

[Az Joe]

And 0300 UTC is what time MST?

[Az Joe]

Eastern Standard Time (EST) EST + 5 hours = UTC

Central Standard Time (CST) CST + 6 hours = UTC

Mountain Standard Time (MST) MST + 7 hours = UTC

Pacific Standard Time (PST) PST + 8 hours = UTC

http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/maps/utc/toutc.rxml

[RightWhale]

We are in aurora central, but it is clouded up and snowing. Light from the aurora can shine through the cloudcover although forms are not visible. We had good aurora last week, though.

[Elliott Jackalope]

My wife is currently spending most of her time browsing spaceweather.com, she was telling me about the two x-flares over the weekend, and we're hoping to see some aurora tonight. Keeping our fingers crossed!

[John H K]

8PM Mountain Time.

Difficult to see aurora at that time, and if the impact IS then, the storm will last hours after that.

In general, your best bet is pretty much always Midnight local time, wherever you are.

[4everontheRight]

Is this visible for most of the US or just the north? I live down in Dixie but I want my auroral show too!!

[Elliott Jackalope]

You're too far south. Aurora is one of those things that you have to be pretty far north to see. It's one of the perks we get for living up near the Canadian border.

[per loin]

Take a look at what is rapidly developing above 10486. Developed so quick, I've not seen a regular number yet assigned. It's being called S290 until it gets one.

[Elliott Jackalope]

Just to help understand the scale of what you are seeing in that picture, any one of those dark regions is big enough to hold the planet Jupiter.

[Elliott Jackalope]

OOPS! My mistake. Those two big regions are big enough to hold Jupiter, the smaller regions aren't, but they could hold Earth with room to spare.

[Elliott Jackalope]

ATTENTION! There was an X-18 flare with a major CME early this morning! And the polarity is projected to be to the south! What does this mean? It means that even you should be able to see aurora tonight! In fact, people in CUBA might be watching aurora tonight! This is a really, really big one! Of course, our lamestream idiot media probably won't mention a word about it until the storm is over and half of the power grid is fried. What a bunch of Olympic grade doofuses. Media is where the people who weren't smart enough to work as janitors go to make a career for themselves.

It probably won't hit until well into the evening however, so your best chance to see something will probably involve getting up a couple of hours before sunrise rather than staying up into the wee hours hoping to see aurora. Of course, this is all famously hard to predict, but this is the advice my wife is giving people as of this minute, and she is a big time aurora watcher, so there you have it.

[4everontheRight]

Thanks!!! I appreciate you letting us Southerners know! I went to Alaska a few years ago and missed seeing the show so I am dying to actually see it, even if it is just a bit. Our weather is cool and cloudy here today though....hope it clears in time.
Thanks again!!!