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Alien hunt in space may score by 2025
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette ^
| Saturday, October 25, 2003
| Michael Woods
Posted on 10/26/2003 11:39:05 AM PST by Willie Green
Edited on 04/13/2004 2:35:22 AM PDT by Jim Robinson.
[history]
E.T., the extraterrestrial, may prowl neighborhoods on Halloween with Hollywood's other soft-and-squishy renditions of intelligent alien life forms.
But when might we humans actually, finally encounter the real thing?
Probably in your lifetime. By 2025.
The leading experts in the search for extraterrestrial intelligence at the SETI Institute in Mountain View, Calif., recently completed the most systematic calculations ever performed on when the human race is likely to contact intelligent alien life for the first time.
(Excerpt) Read more at post-gazette.com ...
TOPICS: Culture/Society; Foreign Affairs
KEYWORDS: aliens; crevolist; globalism
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To: GatekeeperBookman; PatrickHenry; edwin hubble; COBOL2Java; Quix; All
And we are deliberately attempting to contact species of life, unknown?? This is not what SETI is attempting at all. There seems to be this misconception that SETI and UFOs go together.
SETI is the hunt for that elusive very narrowband signal that indicates a non-natural emanation. Not unlike what this planet is doing. The rub is where do we look and at what frequency? There seems to be a general consensus that the "waterhole" frequency is the one we should use. Actual Contact? I sure don't see that. It would be terribly difficult if a hello took 2000 years to get there. Waiting for a reply 4000 years in the future would not be very practical.
The other misconception is how to decode the signal. There is no decoding at all (at least for detection). Just the fact of a narrowband carrier is enough to show we are not the only tool building species in this part of the galaxy.
To: edwin hubble
Feeling pessimistic about some of the Drake variables lately. Possibility of non-earth intelligent life = 0.000000001 or less. It's all ours.
62
posted on
10/26/2003 5:39:41 PM PST
by
RightWhale
(Repeal the Law of the Excluded Middle)
To: RightWhale
You may be right. I sure hope not.
To: RadioAstronomer
Thank you for the patient & complete answer-my then 16 yr old resident IT guy had us doing the SETI thing ( back when we were first on line ) & had not really appreciated the facts, as you detail them1 Very nice info!
64
posted on
10/26/2003 5:42:39 PM PST
by
GatekeeperBookman
("Oh waiter! Please,I'll have the Tancredo '04. Jorge Arbusto tasted just like a dirty Fox")
To: RadioAstronomer
Somebody ought to keep looking anyway. The possibility is not zero, after all.
65
posted on
10/26/2003 5:44:28 PM PST
by
RightWhale
(Repeal the Law of the Excluded Middle)
To: GatekeeperBookman
You are most welcome :-)
BTW, to solve the frequency issue, we are looking at millions of frequencies at the same time. Ups the odds a bit. :-)
To: RightWhale
Thanks. :-) Actually SETI is a win win science. If we are alone, this is most profound. If we are not, this is also profound.
To: martin_fierro
We're on an express elevator to hell - going down
68
posted on
10/26/2003 5:51:22 PM PST
by
KantianBurke
(Don't Tread on Me)
To: KantianBurke
I liked the first movie much better :-)
To: RadioAstronomer
Either we are alone in the universe or we are not. If we are not alone, there will be some root changes made in most of the non-technical disciplines. If we are alone, most people in the world will have to do a gut check.
70
posted on
10/26/2003 5:52:39 PM PST
by
RightWhale
(Repeal the Law of the Excluded Middle)
To: RightWhale
I agree completely. I also think a gut check would be in order for both possibilities. :-)
To: RadioAstronomer
72
posted on
10/26/2003 5:54:34 PM PST
by
KantianBurke
(Don't Tread on Me)
To: KantianBurke
Yuppers. One of the more nasty SiFi beast on film. :-)
I bought Alien on DVD I liked it so well.
To: RadioAstronomer
How far down and up the band are we looking, are we talking hertz and gigahertz, or somewhere in between, or way above, and below?
74
posted on
10/26/2003 6:09:22 PM PST
by
Ogmios
(Since when is 66 senate votes for judicial confirmations constitutional?)
To: KantianBurke; RadioAstronomer
I loved parts I & II -- but III & IV SUCKED!
75
posted on
10/26/2003 6:21:51 PM PST
by
martin_fierro
(A v v n c v l v s M a x i m v s)
To: edwin hubble
I would say, based on the success we've had at spotting planets so far, that these three factors:
fp = The fraction of those stars with planetary systems.
ne = The number of planets, per solar system, with an environment suitable for life.
fl = The fraction of suitable planets on which life actually appears.
are very nearly identical in value (although the middle factor may be only 1/2 or 1/3). But this one:
fi = The fraction of life bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges
is where the chances start to drop off significantly.
To: PatrickHenry
But it leaves us with lots of planets that we might settle.
Now, if we can just figure out a way to get there, economically, feasably, and quickly.
Those are the killers right there.
Lots of space, where do you wish to settle today?
77
posted on
10/26/2003 6:28:27 PM PST
by
Ogmios
(Since when is 66 senate votes for judicial confirmations constitutional?)
To: Ogmios
But it leaves us with lots of planets that we might settle. Assuming they're not already occupied. Well, that didn't stop Columbus, did it? Perhaps you're right.
To: PatrickHenry
"fi = The fraction of life bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges
...is where the chances start to drop off significantly. "
Well, it's looking like life evolved here pretty soon after things cooled below boiling here on Earth.
And stayed at about the same microbial level for two billion years.
Recent conjecture (posted in this forum) speculates that the great Cambrian explosion of life forms could have occured instead a billion or two years earlier. In which case we would be as much as 2 billion years farther in evolution.
Of course, the implication is also there that things would more likely still be at the microbial level today.
Applying this to the 100 million or so sun-like stars...
I agree about variable "fi".
For any one given system with liquid water:
Chance of life = good.
Chance of intelligence = very slim indeed.
Maybe 2 per large spiral galaxy. (We are 1).
To: edwin hubble
Maybe 2 per large spiral galaxy. (We are 1). Sagan estimated thousands, and that was before we knew how common planet formation seems to be. But he always was a bit enthusiastic.
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