Posted on 10/22/2003 6:00:37 AM PDT by BlackRazor
Third-party candidates could deny majority vote
By GEOFF PENDER
THE SUN HERALD
Election Day is Nov. 4, but a perfect storm may be brewing that could delay the selection of a governor for days, weeks or even months. Third-party candidates threaten to siphon enough votes to deny either the incumbent, Democrat Ronnie Musgrove, or Republican challenger Haley Barbour the majority vote required by Mississippi law.
The two have been tracking even for most of the campaign season, each polling in the mid-40 percent range, and with Election Day two weeks away, the possibility grows that neither would receive a majority of the popular vote and a majority of electoral votes, which is measured by House districts.
If no candidate reaches both of those majority votes, the House will decide the race as it did in 1999 when Musgrove was selected over Republican Mike Parker by an 86-36 vote. That election, the longest in state history, wasn't decided until nearly two months after election night when the next legislative session began.
Secretary of State Eric Clark on Monday told The Sun Herald, "What I fear is a repeat of the 1999 election, where it took us 10 days to even determine the electoral votes, and then the election had to be decided in the House."
Clark cited a proliferation of split precincts as an issue leading to ever greater confusion on the part of voters. Recent redistricting has created a "mess" that could leave voters bewildered, said Clark, who oversees elections.
"The devil is in the split voting precincts," he said. "When the state Legislature redrew the House districts, computer technology allows you to go in and carve up precincts. It's real easy to do, but it's not good policy. Four years ago, they had been redrawn after the '90 Census to where we had about 200 split precincts. This year we have about 400.
"If this ends up in a dead heat like everybody's predicting, it could be a really, really long and painful process."
The possibility that either Musgrove or Barbour would attain a majority on Nov. 4 is undermined by other candidates on the ballot.
Two in particular could erode the votes of the front-runners. John Thomas Cripps, the Constitution Party candidate, could harm Barbour's total, while Sherman Lee Dillon, the Green Party candidate, poses a threat to Musgrove.
Cripps' role may be the most intriguing of all in the election, given his leadership in the successful 2002 fight to keep the current state flag and its Confederate Rebel emblem. Each vote for Cripps would likely be stripped right off the top of Barbour's effort.
The state Republican Party has campaigned extensively on the flag issue, apparently recognizing that it is important to hold on to those voters to whom this issue has special appeal, largely conservative white males. Barbour wears crossed flags on his lapel, both the American and Mississippi state flags.
Dillon, a well-known blues musician and college professor, appeals to demographics that are traditionally Democratic.
Together these two candidates could make election night a long one in Mississippi.
"Siphon"? Sounds like they have the idea that the "major" parties own the voters.
Well, "siphon" means to draw away from a higher elevation to a lower elevation. If the major-party candidates are polling higher (i.e. have a higher elevation), then anyone who's polling lower (and receiving increasing support) is by definition siphoning away from them. That's just the definition of the word. No malice is necessarily present here.
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