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To: Doctor Stochastic
...yes-no vote are described as though they were independent variables rather than correlated.

A potential voter has three choices on any ballot issue: to vote yes, to vote no, or not to vote. They are independent choices, and ALL pollsters give separate percentages for yes and no. Because they give separate predictions, each prediction can be tested against the MOE.

The MOE's are incorrectly described for multiple choice polls

In what way? A pollster says he predicts a vote of 55% for yes and 45% for no, and then gives a range plus or minus those figures within which he can claim to be accurate. If the actual election result falls within his MOE, he's predicted the outcome correctly. If not, he's wrong. What's so complicated?

52 posted on 10/21/2003 10:28:57 AM PDT by Wolfstar (NO SECURITY = NO ECONOMY)
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To: Wolfstar
The press is pretty bad at representing the MOE. It is not necessarily a rating of accuracy or confidence of the polls. Usually, they press gives what's called a 95% confidence interval. Unfortunately, this doesn't mean that the results fall within the MOE 95% of the time either.

Actually, "yes," "no," and "abstain" cannot be independent. They must sum to 100% and thus at most two are independent.

In most polls, the systematic errors are still bigger than the statistical errors. The article did point out some of these problems.
59 posted on 10/21/2003 11:33:34 AM PDT by Doctor Stochastic (Vegetabilisch = chaotisch is der Charakter der Modernen. - Friedrich Schlegel)
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