1. Additional geographic stratification (red zone / blue zone) Current trends have to continue so that states or regions are strongly self identified as "conservative" or "socialist" or "liberty" or whatever, and those who oppose these views are a small minority. Even the blue/red zones are not this way now. If you pushed the threshold for coloring in the map from 50% majority in county to 60% it would totally chnage it. If you imposed a 70% majority to color a state red the entire map would be blue. 2. One or more states disobeying the federal government. I think a State is the obvious unit for CW2 flash point. Until a State (or several) elect leaders who are anti-federal I think we have a long way to go. 3. "Lines in the Sand" are clearly drawn and understood. To some extent the 2nd Ammendment is already one such line. When new more explicit lines are drawn saying "we won't tolerate this" that is a big warning sign. Such things did take place at the start of CW1. 4. One or more political parties form with a focus on seccession or radial change. Not "reform". These parties attract 1 million or more members. 5. Military or militia units are formed outside the control of FedGov. These are large scale an include heavy arms. Tom Chittum's book has a bunch more, some of which I don't think are significant, some of which are.
It will IMO be far more like a counter revolution against abuses from the left. I.e., those who Steven Den Beste called tranzis, transnationals; against heavy-handed, lying gun grabbers -- going state-by-state after realizing a federal law ain't going to happen; ILLEGAL immigrant rights advocates pushing, pushing for more, more -- stirring some of the ILLEGALS to violence; enviro wackos pushing. pushing for more, more "rural cleansing" -- it almost sparked Lexington-west at Klamath Falls just a couple of years ago.
Maybe even the "angry white male" made famous by the movie Falling Down will re-appear not as a single unemployed engineer but as a mob in Falling Down, 2004 -- no, this won't be two armies squaring off. Nor will it be IMO a revolution against "the government." It's entirely up to the left's chicken hawk revolutinoaries in the media, the universities, etc. and how they manipulate their mindless minions.
It will be total and absolute chaos out of which will emerge a patriot-dictator, a Man on Horseback. The left will fail to "bring it all down, man."
I've wanted to see it since 1970. Many knew in those days the day would come when the New Left's war against America would have to be confronted. We are there. This is a war within a war. It is part of the war to protect our Republic from radical Islam. The left is an ally of any who would "bring it all down, man."
1. Additional geographic stratification (red zone / blue zone) Current trends have to continue so that states or regions are strongly self identified as "conservative" or "socialist" or "liberty" or whatever, and those who oppose these views are a small minority. Even the blue/red zones are not this way now. If you pushed the threshold for coloring in the map from 50% majority in county to 60% it would totally chnage it. If you imposed a 70% majority to color a state red the entire map would be blue.
The continuing *Mexicification* of Texas, NM, Colorado and California, to include the continued free entrance of illegal immigration to create *Azatlan* gets pretty close, and includes both Democratic and Republican turncoats and Quislings permitting it to continue.
2. One or more states disobeying the federal government. I think a State is the obvious unit for CW2 flash point. Until a State (or several) elect leaders who are anti-federal I think we have a long way to go.
A long way to go, perhaps, but the genesis could well be right in front of you with the recent vote of 5000 *Porcupines* of the Free State Project to pick the state of New Hampshire for their project. At present growth rates, the 5000 will double to 10K by this time next year and double again to 20K a year after that, at which time the migration is to begin. They've been welcomed by the state's current governor, excorciated by the Democrats who see their party sinking into a fourth place of registered voter numbers, and may well be a critical factor in the 2008 election. And an even more ambitious *Free West Project* has grown out of the Eastern group, looking to accomplish similar results in three adjoining Western states. That could easily provide your state defiant of federal policy or direction from on high, or even more intrerestingly, a *competition* between the Western and Eastern groups to see which can more spectacularly and effectively poke their pointy stick in the fed.gov eye.
3. "Lines in the Sand" are clearly drawn and understood. To some extent the 2nd Ammendment is already one such line. When new more explicit lines are drawn saying "we won't tolerate this" that is a big warning sign. Such things did take place at the start of CW1.
The abortion question is certainly another with little liklihood of a simple compromise between either set of proponents. So is the illegal immigration issue and possibly, the widespread deployment of U.S. troops in Kosovo, Afghanistan, and Iraq, with Iran. Syria, and Korea all recently mentioned as likly venues for additional US troop visits.
4. One or more political parties form with a focus on seccession or radial change. Not "reform". These parties attract 1 million or more members.
What do you figure will happen in the South in two years if the FSP is successful in NH? Bet on the liberal urban newspapers and TV stations in the south wailing and bemoaning this terrible *racist* movement to the heavens, offering them better advertising than they could pay for. Likewise expect the Republic of Texas movement to take off as the murders and other violence from illegal invaders continues; the question there is whether Texas will go independent or become a Mexican satrapy.
5. Military or militia units are formed outside the control of FedGov. These are large scale an include heavy arms. Tom Chittum's book has a bunch more, some of which I don't think are significant, some of which are.
Chittum's list can be seen here, or you can find it or other CWII-related posts on FR by using the FR keyword search for CWII.
If you count militia units forming in 6-vehicle tank platoons and shopping for coastal patrol vessels, that can be quickly and effectively armed with *sea skimmer* antiship missiles, we're already at that point; if the US government will not protect its citizens from enemy civilian invaders there's no particular good reason to depend on them for defence against a military force either; accordingly an *armored volunteer fire department* has begun to form and train, and likely will grow.
Note that some such local Civil Guard forces are constitutionalist and see the present fed.gov activities [usually 22 Nov 1963 is given as the cutoff when the legitimate governance was overthrown via coup] as illegitimate and maintained only by force of arms, not morally by virtue of law. There's a variance of opinion as to whether the Constitution can be salvaged and reestablished, would have to go through the entire ratification process again, or should be replaced with another existing contractural agreement between governed and government.
But of even more grounds for concern are the independent platoon and company size groups comprised of those of more of a survivalist bent and intent on expanding with less well prepared supernumeraries in the event of more hostile circumstances in their home localities. There's an excellent chance of local police or military units or individuals from those orgasnizations throwing in with those neighbors, especially if the forces that bring them into the open are clearly identifiable as *outsiders* or *the enemy.*