* Long rates down, bonds/notes up (The dreaded yield curve inversion cometh) * Dollar up, gold down * Stocks up--headed for a major top"
Absolutely I agree. However the stock top looms near--current month or perhaps as late as first half of March. The Treasury needs something like $150Bil of new money over the next sixty days and it is difficult to see them furnishing enough liquidity to hold the stocks together while they are sucking that much out.
The other issue is real estate. Again, I see the top as being fairly near. This is the hot sales season in most markets so the condition and direction ought to be fairly clear by the end of March. And the real estate markets are perhaps most exposed to liquidity flow problems--even with long term rates down; the rate on the ten year has trended down which will keep ARM's in check for the moment. But people are having trouble paying their current taxes; insurance; and debt service at current levels.