My opinion is only from what I learn day to day, not what I believe "Must have happened". Did you read this thread from yesterday?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1003539/posts
I'll believe he is dead when I see physical proof or lack of recordings after a military strike on his supposed location. :-)
The CIA "sources" named by journalists (read "professional bush haters") are always "unnamed" sources. I take that as either illusionary or from the bush-hating clique in the CIA -- it's clear the agency hasn't said "Osama is alive" in any official capacity.
And Bush is VERY careful to always be equivocal on the question of Osama -- i.e., "he may be alive or may be dead" and its easy to understand what's behind that position -- on the 1 in 1million chance that Osama IS alive, Bush would not want to give Osama the satisfaction of pulling a real appearance AFTER Bush officially claimed he was dead.
But he IS dead.