[HostileTerritory]

Right, unemployment more than a year before the '84 election was 8.5%. People didn't know the Nov. '84 rate by election time, but the numbers were in the low 7 range by June, which means the drop in unemployment was well-known public knowledge by election day. Certainly no one thought economic times were still bad by Reagan's reelection.

You seemed to imply that Reagan won reelection when people were still worried about unemployment and the economy; I apologize if that was not the case.

If the unemployment rate drops by one percentage point between now and next November, as it did for Reagan, Bush will will in a landslide of 35+ states. If it doesn't drop, his win could be more difficult.

[IMRight]

You seemed to imply that Reagan won reelection when people were still worried about unemployment and the economy; I apologize if that was not the case.

Not really. I'm saying that the number itself is historically quite low (it will be hard to spin as "terrible performance" if it hasn't changed) AND I'm saying it seems likely that it will move lower over the next year. Unemployment figures lately have been quite positive and GDP growth estimates for the next 12 months exceed 4%.