What Next? Friendly Competition or New Cold War?

China's milestone making Shenzhou 5 flight, piloted by Yang Liwei, a lieutenant colonel of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), is sparking a wide array of opinions as to the mission's true significance.

The landmark space voyage is expected to be China's opening volley in what policy analysts anticipate will be an ever-expanding agenda of human space exploits. China's Shenzhou 5 trek marked the fifth flight of the craft in four years time, and the first to carry a pilot.

But to what degree does China's historic sojourn into space signal military intentions, a hungering for space cooperation, or just a public morale boost fueled by nationalistic get-up-and-go?

Erich Shih, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution's Center for Northeast Asian Policy in Washington, D.C., sees the success of China's first human space flight as a huge boost to the Chinese people's sense of national pride.

"It is also a boost to China's international image," Shih said, and "shows the world that China has every potential to become the next power center in East Asia."

Shih said, however, that one successful human space flight is not going to change China's present international pecking order. "But it does point out a future direction…that China is moving up through the ranks," he said.

For the Chinese it's a very historic event, said Marcia Smith, a policy analyst at the Congressional Research Service in Washington, D.C. "It demonstrates that they have the technological ability to put humans into space. Where it all leads, I think it's still up in the air," Smith said.

The Chinese have discussed plans for their human spaceflight program, Smith said, that includes building space stations and maybe, some day, even sending people to the Moon. "Those are very expensive endeavors and time will tell whether or not they consider that to be a worthwhile investment."

Bates Gill, the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), contends that the Shenzhou 5 mission is not "Sputnik II" or the start of a new "space race".

"Nevertheless, being the first developing-world country to put a man in space gives China some bragging rights and brings it a step closer to its claims to be accepted as a 'Great Power,'" Gill said.

Gill said that, for the near-term, the Shenzhou 5 flight will resonate most in China, giving that country a big boost in national pride and the Communist Party's hopes for legitimacy. Over the longer term, he added, if Beijing's commitment to a robust space program continues to grow, China's strategic missile modernization will steadily realize increasing technological benefits.

James Lewis, CSIS senior fellow and director of the group's Technology and Public Policy Program, views China's space voyage in different terms.

"Countries send people into orbit to increase national prestige. Manned space flight does very little to change the equation for space commerce or national security," Lewis said.

Lewis said one issue is whether Beijing or Washington will "overreact" to the successful Shenzhou 5 flight and turn it into a new source of competition. Another issue, he added, is whether the United States "will be embarrassed about the disarray in its own manned space program."

"It has been 42 years since the last time a nation put its first human into space," said Matt Bille, a space historian and analyst for Booz Allen Hamilton in Colorado Springs, Colorado. "The Chinese have clearly done this very methodically, developing their technology step by step and testing the spacecraft four times before now," Bille noted. "I suspect we are going to see a logical program of building up their capability in low Earth orbit to do long-term stays and focus on earth science, industrial applications, and other capabilities that have some payoff for their economy as well as national pride," he said.

"No other nation has done this in 42 years - not even the European Space Agency. The Chinese will emphasize this. When it comes to space, they -- not India, not Europe -- have been the first in four decades to join the superpowers. You're going to see a nation bursting with pride at earning its place in the history books," Bille told SPACE.com .

"This has been very careful…and very logical. It's a very well thought out program. That tells you that this is not meant as an occasional stunt," Bille said.

Writer Paul Dickson, author of the book, Sputnik: The Shock of the Century, says the real question is what next for China's space program?

"The Chinese have been promising to deliver humans to the lunar surface as long as they've been talking about putting a man in orbit," Dickson said. When and if it becomes apparent that this is China's goal, that will have a ripple effect in NASA plans, he said.

"I think the U.S. will have to seriously consider getting back into the business of manned space exploration. It is hard to imagine that the U.S. will allow the Chinese or the Chinese in partnership with the Russians to explore and exploit the Moon. It also means that for the first time since Richard Nixon was in the White House serious talk can resume about sending humans to Mars," Dickson said.

Perhaps humans will be walking on the Moon again in 2007, Dickson suggested, on the 50th anniversary of the Sputnik launch which started it all.

"The first thing I thought about when I heard the news [about Shenzhou 5] was Sputnik. The second thing was the fable about the race between the tortoise and the hare," Dickson said.

With a human space trek under its belt, could a debate now ensue in China regarding the value of piloted or robotic space exploration questions Jonathan Coopersmith, a Texas A&M University professor specializing in the history of technology.

"In terms of non-political results, robotic spacecraft are more productive. Will Chinese advocates of robotic flights now face a powerful 'man in space' lobby like their American counterparts?," Coopersmith said.

"It will be very interesting to see how this launch plays in Taiwan and Russia," Coopersmith added. "Indeed, how will the Chinese government exploit the Shenzhou flight for domestic and foreign political benefit?"

The United States may respond to the Shenzhou 5 flight by inviting China to become a partner on the International Space Station (ISS), Coopersmith suggests. "An offer of cooperation will be politically important to China and will constitute an American acknowledgement of China's technological accomplishments," he said.

On the other hand, China participation in the station would lend financial and technical support for the troubled space station. "The Bush administration, restricted financially by the growing budget deficits it has created, will correctly argue that cooperating with China is less expensive than competing with it," Coopersmith said.

The Shenzhou 5 landing and safe return of the taikonaut is an event that has several strategic implications for the United States and the international community.

That's the view of William Martel, professor of National Security Affairs, and the Chair of Space Technology and Policy at the Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island.

Firstly, Martel said, China has now entered the ranks of the "first tier" states. "In terms of prestige and technological ability, China is now of the primary players in space. This, by itself, has significant implications for the U.S. and its position of unquestioned strategic superiority in space."

Martel said that China can be expected to accelerate the pace of its space program.

"Now that China has passed the 'human milestone of putting someone in space -- and bringing him back home safely -- China will correctly conclude that its program can be directed toward more manned missions. We should remember that China is actively promoting the idea of putting people on the Moon. In addition, China will engage in other programs, such as new constellations of satellites, a new 'Hubble-like' space telescope, and so forth," Martel told SPACE.com .

Beginning in the late 1950s, the "space race" between the former Soviet Union and the United States was a powerful metaphor for showing off political, economic, and cultural strengths. The "top that" nature of this rivalry -- from Vostok versus Mercury, or Gemini versus Soyuz -- was muted over time as Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin set foot on the Moon. Ultimately, this 20th space superpower competition led to cooperative adventures, such as the International Space Station.

It remains to be seen how China may rekindle a 21st century replay of Cold War one-upmanship as a new arrival in human space exploration.

China is likely to expand its relationships with other international consortia, Martel said. "Today, for example, several European nations expressed interest in teaming with China for future space flights."

Martel said that China clearly views the Shenzhou 5 success "as part of the early stages of more aggressive competition with the United States over its current position of supremacy in space."

"It is inevitable that China and the United States will begin to believe that they are engaged in some form of a space race," Martel concluded. "This can have significant military and technological implications for both sides. And this can have positive consequences. We should remember that the greatest advances in the U.S. space program occurred during the Cold War, when Washington and Moscow were directly competing in space."

"For now, it looks like the principal players in space will be Washington and Beijing," Martel concluded.

October 15, 2003 - House Science Committee Hearing Charter: "The Future of Human Space Flight"Excerpted from the Columbia Accident Investigation Board Report Volume 1, Chapter 9, August 2003.

ATTACHMENT A

"Lack of a National Vision for Space In 1969 President Richard Nixon rejected NASA's sweeping vision for a post-Apollo effort that involved full development of low-Earth orbit, permanent outposts on the moon, and initial journeys to Mars. Since that rejection, these objectives have reappeared as central elements in many proposals setting forth a long-term vision for the U.S. Space program. In 1986 the National Commission on Space proposed "a pioneering mission for 21st-century America: To lead the exploration and development of the space frontier, advancing science, technology, and enterprise, and building institutions and systems that make accessible vast new resources and support human settlements beyond Earth orbit, from the highlands of the Moon to the plains of Mars."

In 1989, on the 20th anniversary of the first lunar landing, President George H.W. Bush proposed a Space Exploration Initiative, calling for "a sustained program of manned exploration of the solar system." Space advocates have been consistent in their call for sending humans beyond low-Earth orbit as the appropriate objective of U.S. space activities.

Review committees as diverse as the 1990 Advisory Committee on the Future of the U.S. Space Program, chaired by Norman Augustine, and the 2001 International Space Station Management and Cost Evaluation Task Force have suggested that the primary justification for a space station is to conduct the research required to plan missions to Mars and/or other distant destinations. However, human travel to destinations beyond Earth orbit has not been adopted as a national objective. The report of the Augustine Committee commented, "It seems that most Americans do support a viable space program for the nation - but no two individuals seem able to agree upon what that space program should be."

The Board observes that none of the competing long-term visions for space have found support from the nation's leadership, or indeed among the general public. The U.S. civilian space effort has moved forward for more than 30 years without a guiding vision, and none seems imminent. In the past, this absence of a strategic vision in itself has reflected a policy decision, since there have been many opportunities for national leaders to agree on ambitious goals for space, and none have done so." ***

NYTimes: Elated, China Promises Another Space Flight in a Year or Two***In addition, Chinese officials plan within three years to begin orbiting and exploring the moon with unmanned probes and to build a Hubble-like space telescope. There is talk of a Mars mission one day.

The government also offered a rare glimpse into its budget. Western estimates of China's space budget are typically about $2 billion a year. The government now says its manned space program, including the four unmanned Shenzhou launchings, has cost roughly $2.2 billion. That would seem remarkably low by American or European standards, but China has a reputation for being thrifty, and costs are lower here.***

________________________________

Amazing how slave labor can stretch a budget. And when the Communist Chinese military is running the show, no one is going to argue budgets, direction and timetables.

________________________________

Spy in the sky *** China's first manned spacecraft did more than simply showcase Beijing's efforts for civilian space flight. The Shenzhou 5, or Divine Vessel 5, spacecraft also conducted intelligence-gathering work for China's military.

Included on the top of the Long March 2F rocket, which boosted Shenzhou into orbit Tuesday, was a new Chinese military intelligence-gathering satellite. The satellite was placed in orbit successfully shortly after the Shenzhou began its 14-orbit mission. No mention of the satellite launch was made in the state-run Chinese press.

Additionally, defense officials said the single-astronaut spacecraft carried an infrared camera that conducted photographic spying. The camera was mounted outside the craft and has a resolution of 1.6 meters, meaning something as small as 5 feet wide can be distinguished.

The space spying highlights China's plans to use space for military purposes, primarily to develop missiles and sensors, and to blind or cripple U.S. communications and intelligence systems in any conflict over Taiwan.

Lt. Col. Mark Stokes, director of the Taiwan desk at the Pentagon, said in a speech Sept. 30 that China's space program is closely linked to the Chinese military.

China's "space assets will play a major role in any use of force against Taiwan and in preventing foreign intervention," Col. Stokes said. It is working to develop networks of satellites that will be used for spying and communications for the military, he said.

China also has shown "significant indications" of developing space weapons, such as satellite-killing missiles and satellites and lasers that can disable U.S. military and intelligence satellites, he said.

The Long March rocket booster also benefited from illegal U.S.-technology transfers in the 1990s, when U.S. satellite companies helped China fix electrical problems with the boosters. The booster improvements also benefited Chinese strategic missiles, which are made by the same Chinese manufacturers of the Long March rocket.***

This, by itself, has significant implications for the U.S. and its position of unquestioned strategic superiority in space."

How did China make their economic great leap forward? Lest we forget, it's only those in Special Economic Zones that are direct beneficiaries. The majority do get some tax revenues from them but little else.

Deng Xiaoping's "open door" policy began two years after Mao's death (1976). Deng ruled from 1976 to 1997 and formed the core of the so-called "second generation" Communist Party of China leadership.

"The overall result has been a virtual dismantling of many Maoist institutions and practices and the beginning of a movement toward a more open society. The analogy is striking between China since 1978 and the Soviet Union of the 1920s, under the New Economic Policy (NEP). China today resembles the pre-Stalinist system in the Soviet Union rather than the Stalinist or post-Stalinist one. . . The scope of change has varied considerably from region to region within China. And just as the Soviet NEP was eventually replaced by Stalinism, so too the Chinese 'NEP' may ultimately give way to a harsher system."

The words are by Donald S. Zagoria in a Foreign Affairs, Spring 1984 article, China's Quiet Revolution.

In the 1920's the Soviets had the same question. Like today, American useful idiots lined up to deliver technology and money. Soviet "nepmen" became forty percent of the Soviet economy, lives were improving. Marxist ideologues were fretting.

IMO true capitalism comes from a free people's social contract. It is not "permitted" to happen by a one-party system. IMO it is not an invisible hand that is moving the Communist Party of China's leadership. They intend to be the super power by 2049, their 100th year.

Just hours before tanks squished people in Tiannaman Square our network airheads relayed glowing adulation about a kinder, gentler China. Not quite. It's the same harsh system as Mao's in that respect.

Derbyshire: Hitting the Great Wall of China***QingLian had a copy of my article and said it was disgraceful for me to use the phrase "Chinese Imperialism." China had been a victim of imperialism! How could China even think of practicing imperialism? Disgraceful! I made some obvious responses with, of course, no effect at all.

We had, in fact, hit the wall. You always do hit the wall with the Chinese when the National Question comes up. It makes no difference if you are talking with Communists or Nationalists, old or young, government flacks or dissidents. I found QingLian formidably articulate. She defended her opinions with the force of a strong intellect.

This experience is very familiar to me. You are sitting there kicking ideas around with some friendly, witty, well-educated, and worldly people. Then the National Question comes up, and suddenly the façade of reason and sophistication drops away and you are confronted by something cold, hostile, and atavistic-the reptilian brain stem. The attachment of the Chinese to every inch of the territory of the old Manchu empire is rooted so deep, it cannot be touched by reason or argument.

The same applies to the resentment the Chinese feel for the humiliations inflicted upon them in the nineteenth century by Japan and the European powers. To an outsider, this seems a little unfair. By far the larger part of the Chinese people's sufferings these past 200 years has been visited on them by their own countrymen. The greatest calamity to afflict China in the nineteenth century was not the depredations of foreign imperialism, but the Taiping Rebellion, an entirely Chinese phenomenon.

Similarly, if there is a prize awarded in hell for murdering Chinese people, the easy winner for the twentieth century division is Mao. All this is forgotten in the fixation on foreign wickedness. A well-adjusted Chinese citizen is expected to have "moved on" from the horrors of Maoism (1949-76) but to be fuming with great indignation at the Opium Wars (1839-42).

The usual reaction of foreigners to this massive sense of national grievance is to grovel. Yes, indeed, we foreigners did very wicked things in the past. I used to take this line myself, but no longer do. To respond in this way, I believe, is to feed a dangerous psyhosis. For all their veneer of sophistication and modernity, the Chinese are trapped in a pre-modernity, almost prehistoric view of their own nationality-a view that has been cultivated very carefully by the Communists. The modern history syllabus of mainland schools is more or less constructed around it. ***

Derbyshire: SORRY STATE (Communist, Nationalist, and Dangerous)***OBSTACLES TO EMPIRE - The grand project of restoring and Sinifying the Manchu dominions has unfortunately met three stumbling blocks. The first was Outer Mongolia, from which the Chinese garrison was expelled following the collapse of Manchu rule. The country declared independence in 1921 under Soviet auspices, and that independence was recognized by Chiang Kai-shek's government in 1945, in return for Soviet recognition of themselves as the "the Central Government of China." Mao seems not to have been very happy about this. In 1954, he asked the Soviets to "return" Outer Mongolia. I do not know the position of China's current government towards Outer Mongolia, but I should not be surprised to learn that somewhere in the filling cabinets of China's defense ministry is a detailed plan for restoring Outer Mongolia to the warm embrace of the Motherland, as soon as a suitable opportunity presents itself.

The second is Taiwan. No Chinese Imperial dynasty paid the least attention to Taiwan, or bothered to claim it. The Manchus did, though, in 1683, and ruled it in a desultory way, as a prefecture of Fujian Province, until 1887, when it was upgraded to a province in its own right. Eight years later it was ceded to Japan, whose property it remained until 1945. In its entire history, it has been ruled by Chinese people seated in China's capital for less than four years. China's current attitudes to Taiwan are, I think, pretty well known.

And the third stumbling block to the restoration of China's greatness is…….the United States. To the modern Chinese way of thinking, China's proper sphere of influence encompasses all of East Asia and the western Pacific. This does not mean that they necessarily want to invade and subjugate all the nations of that region, though they certainly do want to do just that to Taiwan and some groups of smaller islands. For Japan, Korea, the Philippines, Micronesia, etc., the old imperial-suzerainty model would do well enough, at least in the short term. These places could conduct their own internal affairs, so long as they acknowledged the overlordship of Beijing, and, above all, did not enter into alliances, nor even close friendships, with other powers.

Which, of course, too many of them have done, the competitor power in every case being the U.S. It is impossible to overstate how angry it makes the Chinese to think about all those American troops in Japan, Korea, and Guam, together with the U.S. Seventh Fleet steaming up and down in "Chinese" waters, and electronic reconnaissance planes like the EP-3 brought down on April 1 operating within listening distance of the mainland. If you tackle Chinese people on this, they usually say:

"How would you feel if there were Chinese troops in Mexico and Jamaica, and Chinese planes flying up and down your coasts?" Leaving aside the fact that front companies for the Beijing regime now control both ends of the Panama Canal, as well as Freeport in the Bahamas, the answer is that the United States is a democracy of free people, whose government derives its just powers from the consent of the governed, so that the wider America's influence spreads, the better for humanity: while China is a corrupt, brutish, and lawless despotism, the close containment of which is a pressing interest for the whole human race. One cannot, of course, expect Chinese people to be very receptive to this answer.

Or, indeed, to anything much we have to say on the subject of their increasing militant and assertive nationalism. We simply have no leverage here. It is no use trying to pretend that this is the face-saving ideology of a small leadership group, forced on an unwilling populace at gunpoint. The Chinese people respond eagerly to these ultra-nationalist appeals: That is precisely why the leadership makes them. Resentment of the U.S., and a determination to enforce Chinese hegemony in Asia, are well-nigh universal among modern mainland Chinese. These emotions trump any desire for constitutional government, however much people dislike the current regime for its corruption and incompetence. Find a mainlander, preferably one under the age of thirty, and ask him which of the following he would prefer: for the Communists to stay in power indefinitely, unreformed, but in full control of the "three T's" (Tibet, Turkestan, Taiwan); or a democratic, constitutional government without the three T's. His answer will depress you. You can even try this unhappy little experiment with dissidents: same answer.

Is there anything we can do about all this? One thing only. We must understand clearly that there will be lasting peace in East Asia when, and only when, China abandons her atavistic fantasies of imperial hegemony, withdraws her armies from the 2 million square miles of other people's territory they currently occupy, and gets herself a democratic government under a rule of law. Until that day comes, if it ever does, the danger of war will be a constant in relations between China and the world beyond the Wall, as recent events in the South China Sea have illustrated. Free nations, under the indispensable leadership of the United States, must in the meantime struggle to maintain peace, using the one, single, and only method that wretched humanity, in all its millennia of experience, has so far been able to devise for that purpose: Qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum. ***

Full articles at LINKS.

Said that after the capsule separated, the next stages boosted themselves to a higher and stable orbit. If Hoagland is right, it's possible China may have 3 spy satellites in orbit.

China's man in space ***As China uses its cheap labor to become the world's manufacturing center, it generates huge amounts of foreign exchange that enable it to finance both military modernization and space adventures. Chinese officials claim the Shenzhou program is "purely for peaceful purposes," but the orbital module already is being used to gather electronic intelligence (ELINT).

The first manned flight is expected to be in space for only 90 minutes. But after separation, the orbital module; with its own propulsion system for autonomous flight; will stay in space for up to eight months. The orbital modules of Shenzhou 3 and 4 had an ELINT capability that included three antennas aimed at Earth to determine the source of ultra-high frequency emissions, plus other antennas designed to detect and locate radar transmissions. The Soviets used similar transmissions to monitor movements of U.S. Navy ships.

It may be true that China's astronauts will not engage in military activities, at least initially, but the orbital module they leave behind is loaded with equipment that will autonomously conduct surveillance from space. Data are downloaded electronically when the spacecraft is over China. The Shenzhou 3 and 4 orbital modules were China's first ELINT satellites. They have enabled Beijing to track U.S. naval movements since March 2002.***

China Waging War on Space-Based Weapons***The PLA also is experimenting with other types of satellite killers: land-based, directed-energy weapons and "micro-satellites" (search) that can be used as kinetic energy weapons. According to the latest (July 2003) assessment by the U.S. Defense Department, China will probably be able to field a direct-ascent anti-satellite system (search) in the next two to six years.

Such weapons would directly threaten what many believe would be America's best form of ballistic-missile defense: a system of space-based surveillance and tracking sensors, connected with land-based sensors and space-based missile interceptors. Such a system could negate any Chinese missile attack on the U.S. homeland.

China may be a long way from contemplating a ballistic missile attack on the U.S. homeland. But deployment of American space-based interceptors also would negate the missiles China is refitting to threaten Taiwan and U.S. bases in Okinawa and Guam. And there's the rub, as far as the PLA is concerned.

Clearly, Beijing's draft treaty to ban deployment of space-based weapons is merely a delaying tactic aimed at hampering American progress on ballistic-missile defense while its own scientists develop effective countermeasures.

What Beijing hopes to gain from this approach is the ability to disrupt American battlefield awareness--and its command and control operations--and to deny the U.S. access to the waters around China and Taiwan should the issue of Taiwan's sovereignty lead to conflict between the two Chinas.

China's military thinkers are probably correct: The weaponization of space is inevitable. And it's abundantly clear that, draft treaties and pious rhetoric notwithstanding, they're doing everything possible to position themselves for dominance in space. That's worth keeping in mind the next time they exhort "peace-loving nations" to stay grounded.***

Red Dragon Rising: China's Space Program Driven by Military Ambitions*** Richard Fisher, a senior Fellow with the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, D.C., said that China's unmanned satellite program is "accelerating in an upward direction, rather quickly."

That acceleration, Fisher said, has ominous portent.

"They are preparing for a post-2005 conflict time frame. I think by 2005, or soon thereafter, an initial photo and radar satellite constellation will be in place. It will be sophisticated and large, and sufficient for Chinese needs to support a military campaign over Taiwan," he said.

Fisher said that China's piloted Shenzhou can be expected to contribute imaging or other reconnaissance data to the country's People's Liberation Army (PLA) in some form. "It will not be a purely science for science-sake undertaking," he said.

"Their manned space program is, first and foremost, a political exercise for the communist leadership," said "It is an exercise designed to prove the continuing worth of the communist government to the Chinese people," he said.

American reliance on space continues to grow, a fact not missed by China, Fisher said. In the PLA there is a very clear realization that space control, in the American sense, is something that they require as well, he said.

"China needs to be able to deny to the United States access and use of space, as they themselves exploit space to support their own forces," Fisher said.

To this end, Fisher said that researchers in China are busy at work on high-energy lasers to dazzle U.S. satellites. Another part of that nation's space arsenal are nanosatellites, tiny craft that can be used as anti-satellite weaponry. Furthermore, the Chinese have a small aircraft-shaped space shuttle, a vehicle easily modified to carry missiles sufficient for satellite interception, he said.***

Pentagon Report Calls for the United States Control of Space***Because many activities conducted in space are critical to America's national security and economic well being, the ability of the United States to access and utilize space is a vital national security interest," the QDR says. "During crisis or conflict, potential adversaries may target U.S., allied, and commercial space assets as an asymmetric means of countering or reducing U.S. military operational effectiveness, intelligence capabilities, economic and societal stability, and national will."

The QDR stresses that ensuring the freedom of access to space and protecting U.S. national security interests in space are priorities for the DoD.

"The mission of space control is to ensure the freedom of action in space for the United States and its allies and, when directed, to deny such freedom of action to adversaries. As the foundation for space control, space surveillance will receive increased emphasis," the report says.

Additionally, the DoD will pursue modernization of aging space surveillance infrastructure. Also, the current ability to track and catalog orbiting spacecraft -- a system that military insiders say is far too clumsy and limited -- must be evolved to provide "space situational awareness". This means a greatly increased ability to know the exact whereabouts and actions of Earth-orbiting objects.

Embarking on the long-term transformation of U.S. military capabilities will take time, money and resolve.

Melding the use of space to other war fighting tools may require establishment of a Joint National Training Center, the QDR states, as well as a space test range. Such a center and test range, and an ability to better simulate "opposing force" actions, would help hone innovative strategies, try out advanced hardware, and sharpen the skills of war fighters in the 21st century.***

***The forward, orbital module of the Shenzhou manned spacecraft was designed to accommodate a variety of mission equipment. The orbital module remains in orbit after the service module and re-entry capsule have returned to earth. This means the mission equipment installed correspond in capability to a large unmanned satellite. Shenzhou's two different primary payloads, both of them military, were not discussed by Chinese authorities until early 2003.

Shenzhou 1 and 2 flew with dummy or partial electronic intelligence packages. On those flights three extendible booms were part of an experimental magnetic attitude sensing and control system. Shenzhou 3 and 4 flew with the complete electronic intelligence payload mounted on the nose. As analysed by veteran space-radio expert Sven Grahn, this consisted of two major components. UHF emission direction-finding was accomplished by three earth-pointing television-aerial type antennae deployed on long telescoping booms. These would function in the UHF band between 300 and 1,000 MHz, covering a variety of civilian and military emission sources. They were supplemented by seven horn antennae arranged in an arc. These would detect and localise radar transmissions. This combination would allow coverage of the entire earth below as the orbital module passed over the earth's surface.

Given that China had not previously flown a major ELINT satellite, this was an enormous leap in Chinese military surveillance from space. Each orbital module remains in space as long as eight months after the other modules return to earth. That means the orbital modules of the Shenzhou spacecraft have been scanning the earth 90% of the time, day in and day out, since Shenzhou 3 was launched in March 2002. Data is dumped in ten-minute bursts when the spacecraft pass over Miyun, near Beijing. These missions would have given China's equivalent to the American National Security Agency an excellent introduction into capabilities and problems in flying an operational ELINT satellite over a variety of targets and seasons of the year. The main objective, as was the case for low-altitude Soviet systems, would be to keep track of the US Navy, particularly carrier groups. Observations by Shenzhou 4 during the Iraq War would have been an intelligence windfall for the Chinese.

The second military payload flown aboard Shenzhou is an imaging reconnaissance package. This consisted of two cameras with an aperture of 500 - 600 mm. One is mounted in the equipment package at the nose of the spacecraft, the other below it at what had been earlier thought to be the porthole above the orbital module's main hatch. The use of two differing cameras indicates a hyper-spectral, multi-resolution, combination mapping/close-look system. As reported in Space Daily last March, Zhang Houying of the Chinese Academy of Sciences gave the ground resolution of the close-look CCD camera as 1.6 m.

According to Zhang, the high-resolution imaging payload would first fly on Shenzhou 5. He also reported that Shenzhou 5 would carry a docking system in addition to the camera system. This would seem to be contradictory, since the top camera would have to be mounted over the docking collar.

In any case it may be inferred that the main mission of China's first manned spaceflight will be military imaging reconnaissance. If the pattern of the Shenzhou 3 and 4 flights is followed, the crew will be tasked to identify targets of interest and will fly in a controlled 331 x 337 km orbit for 107 revolutions, or 6.77 days. The orbital module would remain in orbit for up to eight months after the crew returns to earth. Other sources indicate that the manned portion of the flight will be limited to only a single day to minimise risks, after which the orbital module will presumably continue in space on its surveillance mission.***Source

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