Beware the Military Agenda Behind Shenzhou

Wall Street Journal | RICHARD D. FISHER JR

[milestogo]

Beware the Military Agenda Behind Shenzhou
By RICHARD D. FISHER JR.

The successful launch of the Shenzhou V will inevitably lead to calls for greater American and European cooperation with China in space. This would be unwise, as any space cooperation with China is bound to assist its considerable military-space ambitions, which are already being fed by Russian and European technology.

Let there be no doubt: China's ambitious manned space program is at least as tied to military-space warfare goals as is the case in the United States. Perhaps even more so. After all, the U.S. National Air and Space Administration is a civilian organization, led by a civilian, though its activities are intertwined with American military-space programs. China's manned-space program, on the other hand, is led by the director of General Armament Department of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), who also sits on the Central Military Commission of the Chinese Communist Party. The first PLA General to be identified as director of China's manned space program was Cao Gangchuan, who is now Minister of Defense.

The fusing of military and manned missions started with the unmanned Shenzhou test missions that began in November 1999. China's spacecraft differs from its Russian Soyuz progenitor in that Shenzhou's orbital module is designed for extended missions following the return of the manned capsule. The orbital modules for Shenzhou I had a curious antennae structure which Swedish expert Sven Grahn argues persuasively was for gathering electronic intelligence. Pictures of the orbital modules for Shenzhous III and IV show structures more consistent with cameras, and pictures of the manned Shenzhou V orbital module very clearly show two camera-like structures. Chinese press reports have also long commented on the photo-reconnaissance capabilities of the later Shenzhou test flights. Mark Wade, chronicler of the extensive Encyclopedia Astronautica Web site has correctly noted that "it may be inferred that the main mission of China's first manned spaceflight will be military imaging reconnaissance."

On Monday, the Communist Party's flagship newspaper People's Daily went even further, "Manned spacecraft can carry out missions of reconnaissance and surveillance better and enable the military to deploy, repair and assemble military satellites that could monitor and direct and control military forces on Earth." This raises the prospect that future Chinese manned space stations, which could be lofted before the end of the decade, will have multiple military missions. It is noteworthy that the U.S. considered but abandoned the idea of manned military space stations in the early 1960s, and that only a few of the early Soviet Salyut space stations were dedicated to military missions.

That future Chinese space stations could enable the launching and repairing of other military satellites serves to highlight China's already extensive investment in this area, with considerable foreign help. These are intended to cue and guide future PLA precision guided weapons such as terminally-guided ballistic missiles or new land-attack cruise missiles. For example, by 2006 China hopes to launch four high-resolution electro-optical satellites and four cloud-penetrating radar satellites. These eight satellites will allow twice daily monitoring of any target on Earth.

Having found their targets, future PLA missiles will need precise location signals that can be provided by navigation satellites. Since Washington could deny the PLA access to data from the U.S. Navstar or Global Positioning Satellite system in the event of a conflict, China is investing in an indigenous navigation-satellite program, and in the new European Galileo navigation-satellite program. With an expected down payment of over $200 million, China will soon become an official "partner" in the Galileo constellation, which will provide the PLA with an alternative source of precision location signals for targeting its weapons.

In addition, the PLA is quickly gathering the capability to shoot down U.S. and other adversary satellites. On Sept. 16 it tested its first Pioneer KT-1 mobile solid-fuel space-launch vehicle for launching small satellites into low Earth orbit. Such mobile space-launch vehicles allow one to launch an interceptor in the anticipated path of a target satellite. With the help of Britain's Surrey Space Systems, the PLA now has the technology to make micro and nanosatellites that can be used as interceptors. Subsequent KT-2 and KT-2A launch vehicles will be based on the DF-31 and DF-31A Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles and will allow interceptions in the polar orbits used by many U.S. military satellites.

All of this is coming together to pose a threat to Taiwan, its supporters, and India. The PLA already has an estimated 500 ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan, and hundreds of new land-attack cruise missiles are expected to be deployed, beginning in 2005. A new 620 mile range version of the DF-15 short-range ballistic missile, existing precision-guided DF-21C intermediate range missiles, and new cruise missiles, will also be able to target U.S. forces on Okinawa that could come to Taiwan's aid. And on October 3 Pakistan launched its new Ghaznavi short-range ballistic missile, which is a modified version of the Chinese DF-11 Mod 1 missile. The Pakistani missile has larger control fins near the nose, perhaps indicating a greater degree of precision control, which would require input from new PLA imaging and navigation satellites.

To be sure, the successful launch of the Shenzhou V allows the Chinese communist leadership to bask in the accomplishments of its engineers and pilots. And as China's experience in manned space increases, there will be more calls, especially from Europe, to allow China on the International Space Station and to increase cooperation. But Washington should resist these calls as long as China proliferates dangerous missiles, protects North Korea's nuclear program, and continues to threaten a democratic Taiwan. Peace with China on Earth should precede cooperation in space.

Mr. Fisher is a fellow with the Center for Security Policy in Washington, D.C.

[Wolverine]

Today, 16 October 1963, is the 40 year anniversary of the first Chinese nuclear detonation at Lop Nor China.

[joesnuffy]

China doesnt do anything without a military agenda
The Red Army even owns the Navy

[harpseal]

Ping

To me the economic connection is clear and unless something is done we may well have to deal with the economic effects of an Chinese airburst above some American cities. But of course we would have Free Traitors arguing that would be wonderful for the American economy and think of the harm it would do to the unions.

On or off let me know

[riri]

But of course we would have Free Traitors arguing that would be wonderful for the American economy and think of the harm it would do to the unions

LOL. You forgot the self important glee when explaining the pace of change in places like Shang-Hai.

[maui_hawaii]

Symbolism BUMP

Remember a while back? There was this big tadoo about China's missile capability...

The CIA and many other apologists for China were saying "China can't take Taiwan...China only has 20 missiles and they could barely reach the west coast..."

We know for 100% now that they are wrong in their assessments. Its no longer opinion about how one views China, however they will find something else to defend China about...

[harpseal]

LOL. You forgot the self important glee when explaining the pace of change in places like Shang-Hai.

Ah yes, I also forgot how they would say that the trade was making us safer too as several cities smolder.

[EagleMamaMT]

"...wonderful for the American economy and think of the harm it would do to the unions."

LOL! This would certainly be right in line with the talking points the "Free Traitors" usually spew.

[1066AD]

ambitions, which are already being fed by Russian and European technology.
Don't forget the US. Ten years ago they couldn't even get the rockets more than a few hundred feet into the air... now they can target us, thanks LORAL, thanks HUGHES and most of thanks to the Clinton Administration for allowing the technology export (Bubba says thanks for the campaign contributions too)..

[1066AD]

ambitions, which are already being fed by Russian and European technology.
Don't forget the US. Ten years ago they couldn't even get the rockets more than a few hundred feet into the air... now they can target us, thanks LORAL, thanks HUGHES and most of thanks to the Clinton Administration for allowing the technology export (Bubba says thanks for the campaign contributions too)..

[FreepForever]

Spending 2.4 billion US dollar on a “me-too, white-elephant, 14-round cake walk” space project when half of China’s 800 million rural population is still living below the poverty line and cannot afford to pay for food, education and medical care is a crime. Only 2% of China’s GDP is allocated for education, ranking her behind Uganda. With USD2.4 billion, the ChiCom can at least provide these people with electricity and clean water. The ChiCom is building their political prestige at the expense of her people’s suffering.

How much prestige can this space mission bring is still a big question mark, not to mention its justification. The astronaut Lt. Col. Yang Li-wei is 38 years old. When Soviet Union’s Yuri Gagarin made the world’s first manned space mission 42 years ago in 1961, this ChiCom national hero Yang Li-wei is still a sperm lurking in his father’s scrotum.

How much prestige can China buy with USD2.4 billion?

1) China has proven that they finally can, with today’s computer technology, duplicate what the USSR did 42 years ago with slide rule and vacuum tube technology.

2) The project has proven that China’s space technology is “ONLY” 42 years (or at least 1.5 generation) behind world standard.

3) China’s astronauts are all trained in Russia. And, most of China’s space technologies are either bought or stolen from Western countries.

If China has this kind of money, the national strength and the so-called advanced technology, the western world should revoke China’s “developing nation” treatment in the WTO agreement that she negotiated so hard for.

The ChiCom’s prime concern is their survival and the continuation of their regime. The space mission is the kind of project that benefits the Party instead of the country and the people.

[harpseal]

Yes and given the incineration of several million Americans they would use that as justification for expanding teh H1-B visa program.

[LibertyAndJusticeForAll]

" If China has this kind of money, the national strength and the so-called advanced technology, the western world should revoke China’s “developing nation” treatment in the WTO agreement that she negotiated so hard for. "

Add to this revoking taxpayer funded OPIC and Export-Import money that encourages corporations to offshore - like Intel's $200 million semiconductor plant being built in China.
How can China be considered a 3rd world country needing extra financial help with this satellite orbiting over our heads? It is their priorities that are messed up and their communist government is setting those priorities.

[hedgetrimmer]

And if the the pace of change in places like Shang-Hai is too fast for you, you can chill out in one of Senator Diane Feingsteins hotels there, while you catch your breath.

[EagleMamaMT]

Shhh...don't give the congress critters any ideas! :)

[harpseal]

It seems to me and several others that a confrontation with teh people's Republic of China is inevitable. The only questions are when and how severe will it be. The Chinese foray into space only really makes sense as a military measure and as a party boosting measure. The PRC leadership realizes there is a distance to go still but they are working towards their goals relentlessly and any thoughts of liberty for the Chinese people are out of the question while the party remains in power.

[EagleMamaMT]

Good post and really good tagline!

[NorseWood]

Don't forget that we have educated many of China's students in our colleges and universities.

[EagleMamaMT]

I agree with you. I think we will see a war with the ChiComs. As a mother of four sons, that makes me pretty sick. Like the poster above said, we can thank Bill Clinton and offshoring of cutting-edge technology for giving the ChiComs the know-how for this "space shot". And I wish the current administration would work harder to keep national security technology out of their hands: The recent rare earth magnet debacle comes to mind.

[harpseal]

We are selling them the rope. I do not wish to see a war with China as such an eventuality will be a disater for humanity. The problem is that trade of teh kind being fostered with China has only brought on wars not avoided them.