[capitan_refugio]

You need sixty votes to be filibuster-proof.

The democrats have several other seats that are not rock-solid locks. For instance, Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark) comes to mind. The Louisiana seat of John Breaux (D) is safe if he stays on (fairly conservative democrat - as democrats go), but if he retires, it's anybody's guess. And what about Byron Dorgan in North Dakota. Bush carried that state by over 20% in November 2000. If GW brings that margin again, there might be coattails for a qualified Republican challenger.

Although I'm still looking at a 3 or 4 seat Republican Senate gain, if Bush gets it all together with a good economy and job creation on the rise, the underpinnings of a 1964-style landslide are there.

[nospinzone]

The democrats have several other seats that are not rock-solid locks. For instance, Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark) comes to mind. The Louisiana seat of John Breaux (D) is safe if he stays on (fairly conservative democrat - as democrats go), but if he retires, it's anybody's guess. And what about Byron Dorgan in North Dakota. Bush carried that state by over 20% in November 2000. If GW brings that margin again, there might be coattails for a qualified Republican challenger.

Although I'm still looking at a 3 or 4 seat Republican Senate gain, if Bush gets it all together with a good economy and job creation on the rise, the underpinnings of a 1964-style landslide are there.

I wish I could say we had a chance of unseating Dorgan, but I think Shafer was pretty much it. I think Arkansas and North Dakota are pretty much done, but there are plenty of others. I think these are the races we have in play:

Georgia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Louisiana (if Breaux retires)
Florida (If Graham retires)
Washington
Nevada (Reid won by less than 500, Nevada has been going more Republican, trust me he won't just skate back in even without Gibbons running)
South Dakota (If Thune runs)
California (The "Arnie bounce"?)
Wisconsin (Um.....depends on who runs)