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"If Pat Toomey wins the GOP primary, I'd rate the open Senate as a toss-up."

Hoeffel won't beat Toomey. Hoeffel's too much of a social liberal, and his gun-grabbing ways are anathema to the blue-collar Democrats who comprise the heart of the party outside of the Philly area. If Toomey beats Arlen in the primary (as I pray that he does, and already sent him money to try to get it done), he should win with between 52%-55% of the vote.

***Hoeffel's too much of a social liberal, and his gun-grabbing ways are anathema to the blue-collar Democrats who comprise the heart of the party outside of the Philly area.***

The Bob Casey Democrats are a very fickle bunch. They have no problem voting for Al Gore and Ed Rendell. Yet, they give approval ratings to Sen. Rick Santorum and Rep. Melissa Hart (PA-04). I suspect the support that Santorum and Hart receive from the Casey Dems has more to do with the fact that they're from the Western PA area than their conservative voting records. Since Pat Toomey is not from the Pittsburgh area, it is not clear how the Casey Dems will react to him. This is why I rate a Toomey - Hoeffel Senate match as a toss-up. Now if Melissa Hart ran instead of Toomey, she would crush both Specter and Hoeffel. Being a pro-life woman from Pittsburgh is a political asset in the Keystone State.