I think the race will depend in part if Nunn & Heleringer keep sniping at Fletcher after the primary. That could create some bad karma (do they allow karma in Kentucky?) in a close race, which it really should be.
This is a state where a visit from Dubya -- just one, not overdoing it -- might very well help. The state is clearly in tune with national Republicans, and I think they're ready to go that way at the state level too, so I'll say Fletcher pulls it out 54-46.
I sure would at least like to see what polling looks like at this point in a head-to-head matchup of Fletcher vs. Chandler.