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Guys, guys, guys! Let's not get overconfident -- that's what happened after our victories in '94. I'll repeat my analysis of the most vulnerable seats in '04, although I posted all of this on the previous thread.

South Carolina - Hollings is toast; Reps. Joe Wilson or Jim DeMint will easily pick up the seat.

California - taking out Boxer is a priority; after sifting through several candidates, U.S. Treasurer Rosario Marin seems like the best candidate.

Wisconsin - don't underestimate Feingold, but his integrity is his greatest weakness, as he did not take any PAC money in '98; Tommy Thompson would have a good chance at taking him out. The next-best candidate is Rep. Paul Ryan. If neither of them runs, though, I think that the Dems keep this seat.

Washington - Patty Murray is a clone of Boxer, but only one person has a chance against her, and that's Rep. Jennifer Dunn. Dunn is 61 and now is her best chance at achieving higher office, if that's what she wants.

North Carolina - I feel good about our likely candidate, Rep. Richard Burr, against Edwards, who has alienated voters with his national ambitions and criticism of President Bush.

Florida - Bob Graham should be a top target after questioning Bush's legitimacy in 2000. It is time for popular Lt. Gov. Frank Brogan to move on to bigger and better things.

Arkansas - after Landrieu's victory, Blanche Lincoln's prospects are looking much brighter; both Huck and Hutch look like strong candidates, but they both have weaknesses; this seat "leans DEM" but is a possibility.

New York - as a Buffalo resident, I like many of the things Schumer has done for our state, but I despise his extreme position on abortion. Giuliani is the only man who can take him out, though.

South Dakota - a disappointing performance by Thune is discouraging, but Tim Johnson ran an excellent campaign. A Thune-Daschle or Janklow-Daschle race would be competitive, but I think that Daschle will win if he runs again.

North Dakota - I like Byron Dorgan, but I'd like him better if he weren't in the Senate; former Gov. Ed Schafer has a chance of defeating him, but this is seat still "leans DEM".

Georgia - if Zell Miller runs again, he wins. If he doesn't run again, the seat is leans GOP; my personal favorite is Rep. Jack Kingston, a rising star.

Louisiana - ditto for Georgia -- John Breaux is the state's most popular politician, but if he retires, the seat will be up for grabs. Will Suzie Terrell run again? If not, Reps. Billy Tauzin or David Vitter.

Indiana - I think that Evan Bayh is unbeatable, but I would like to see Dan Quayle, who will be just 57, make a comeback, even if Bayh runs again.

Nevada - Harry Reid is nothing if not a survivor. I think he will win unless he faces popular Gov. Kenny Guinn, whom CATO ranked as the most fiscally responsible governor.

It's early, but I estimate a 1-3 seat gain for the GOP. Tomorrow: Republican seats.