Shaheen, Sununu about even in poll

Thanks to undeclared voters, Gov. Jeanne Shaheen has pulled about even in her U.S. Senate race against U.S. Rep. John E. Sununu, according to a poll released yesterday.

Sununu, a Republican, had the support of 48 percent of those polled by the American Research Group. Shaheen, a Democrat, had 46 percent, with 6 percent undecided.

The telephone poll of 600 likely voters was conducted Sunday through Tuesday. Its margin of error, plus or minus 4 percentage points, means the candidates are about even.

Though Sununu led in earlier polls by the same group, Shaheen has been gaining ground, particularly among independent voters in the Second Congressional District, pollster Dick Bennett said. Sununu represents the First District, the state's eastern side.

Independent voters in the Second District tend to lean Republican, but many of them voted for Shaheen in her three campaigns for governor, Bennett said.

"These people have voted for Shaheen in the past; they've never voted for Sununu," he said.

What's your take? Will Shaheen pull it out?

I really don't know, but I have sensed for a few weeks that Shaheen has the momentum, She has been skilled in the past at saying nothing and sounding reasonable while doing so, at the same time being very successful at portraying whatever Repub she has run against as a extremist right-winger who has no concern for people.

As a positive, I think the zillionaire Repub Benson, who is buying the governor's office, will win by a large margin over the pro-tax Dem Fernald. This may coattail Sununu in....I hope.

There was a Sununu-Shaheen debate last night, which I did not watch, but it sounds like it was a draw. I was at a local high school football game, where the Dem Fernald was walking about handing out literature and shaking hands, including mine. Everyone I saw was very polite to him [we are that way here in NH ;^)] but nobody at all seemed the least bit interested in him, FWIW.

There was a Sununu-Shaheen debate last night, which I did not watch, but it sounds like it was a draw.

I saw the latter half of the debate, and based on that, would generally agree with that assessment. Sununu seems to be a very good debater, in terms of substance, clearly explaining his positions and overall reasoning. He doesn't get flustered and he speaks well. He gave the better answers. However, his demeanor often comes across as somewhat juvenile, whiney, or even a little hyperactive. Shaheen, on the other hand, often talks in circles substantively, but comes across as more well-balanced, even-tempered and in command. In that regard, I guess you could say that her persona seems more "senatorial". She did stumble on a couple of questions, notably on the issue of intervention in Iraq. Her response was very stilted and littered with pauses, almost as if she were having trouble remembering her memorized answer.

Mr. Cogburn

, Not everybody in NH is like that. When I saw Clifton Below I made it a point to question him about his lack of military service. Clifton's ready to volunteer for everything (state rep, garden club, etc.) except of course something that will require genuine sacrifice and cost him a few years of his life.

I'd have made the same point to Fernald: it is good he'll no longer be representing Milford...it looks as though we'll have a real American as State Senator for a change.

Not to get you more uncertain about the Shaheen-Sununu race, but it was thought that Sununu would be able to convert on third and two because of the Benson offensive line, but Benson (scared to give Fernald any opening at beating him-- which I agree with as factual, but wish it weren't so) has turned the spigot off totally. He let go many of his staff and stopped spending the way he did before the primary. To add to the injury, he's not spending money for state legislature candidates (who are part of the ground game) because he doesn't want to be accused of buying the legislature. Many are realizing they should have gotten checks before the primary when he was spending freely. The co-chair of Nurses for Benson who is also a state rep candidate was one of those who were shocked to discover the money they expected wasn't coming. Benson hasn't bought tables for county fundraisers or anything.

Still, I'm working hard and we had a good turnout of supporters at the debate-- we outnumbered the actual New Hampshire Democrats there (many were Teamsters and such from Massachusetts). Some Smith write-in people were there (about 5 or 6). We used big Sununu signs to hide their small yard signs they'd set up.

Kevin Landrigan thinks that Sununu can still win it if Smith doesn't garner more than 2% of the vote. I still believe that many Smith write-in people will have second thoughts and not go trough with it. Sununu didn't back down at all at the WMUR debate on abortion. NH-1 candidate Fran Wendelboe was one of the Sununu supporters on hand. She was so pro-Smith, she wore a Smith sticker to the GOP primary debate for NH-1 and taled about him in the who's your hero question section of that debate. I hope she has written some letters to the editor. Also, it's important to realize that these numbers include the Smith factor (if I recall).

I think that the state rep candidates are working together when before they didn't because they were focused on working for their election alone.

I think this helps Republicans-- and it helps Sununu. Democrats were mostly from large multi-rep areas before, so it's not a new dynamic for them. Many of these Republican state rep candidates thrown together with other towns are Bob Smith conservatives and they have all gotten behind the election of Sununu and Benson because they think it helps their causes.

For example, in my District 17, Bill Picken lives on Rte 4 and has great political sign real estate. He was a solid Humphrey-Smith supporter. He'd have likely not put up a Sununu sign had he not been on the November ballot. There's one there in his yard with the rest of his District 17 signs.

That's what hurts this Smith write-in campaign is that so many Smith supporters (like Picken and Wendelboe and Mirski and others) are now Sununu supporters. There is hardly any unity in this effort.

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