These polls don't seem realistic. Hayes only won by 11 points last time and his district was redrawn to be more liberal.
The district isn't that much more liberal, it is just more urban (the Bush margin over Gore declined from 11.5% to 7.5%). The urban thing I suspect helps the incumbent Hayes rather than hurts him with the trade issue.
Hayes only won by 11 points last time and his district was redrawn to be more liberal. Yes, but last time was a rematch of the 1998 election, so Hayes' previous opponent was well known. Kouri, a political new-comer, only has around 41% name ID, and has not run any TV ads, yet. It's not too surprising that Hayes, being a two-term incumbent and former gubernatorial nominee, would have a significant lead over him.