Two candidates draw 44% each, even though 42% object to ballot switch

http://www.nj.com/news/ledger ^ | 10/08/2002 | BY JOE DONOHUE

[Mollygal]

The eleventh-hour substitution of former Sen. Frank Lautenberg for Sen. Robert Torricelli has turned the U.S. Senate contest from what appeared to be a certain loss for Democrats into a horse race, according to a Star-Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgers Poll released yesterday.

Among respondents who said they are likely to vote Nov. 5, the race between Lautenberg and Republican Douglas Forrester is a dead heat -- 44 percent to 44 percent. Among potential voters, Lautenberg holds a 46 percent to 40 percent lead.

[Coop]

Good news, in my view. The "incumbent" Lautenberg's bounce has settled, and this is anyone's race. I can't help but think the GOP anger will translate into more money for Forrester and a stronger turnout on Nov. 5th.

But NJ's demographics favor the Louse, and I've certainly been wrong before.

[Coop]

FYI

[frmrda]

You're right Coop. This one can't be predicted.

I think the winner will be the one whose campaign does the best job. Forrester has an edge there because he still has room to convince people to vote for him. Lautenberg's a known quality. We'll see how good Forrester's campaign is from here

Also, I think Forrester can gain some ground in the debates. Lautenberg is, to say the least, going senile. He does not leave a good impression. Also, the "underdog" role is something that can work for him, provided that his campaign doesn't become "one-note" on this issue. Also, I think when it comes down to it, people don't like what was done.

Forrester should also really hammer Lautenberg on the issue of whether he will serve his whole term. That allows him to play the "age" card, without being so direct and saying "You old fart, they got you out of mothballs to run this race. And do the people really want a Senator whose oatmeal drips from his mouth".

Of course Lautenberg's advantage is the "D" behind his name and the fact that this election is in NJ.

[Coop]

Don't get mad. Get motivated and do something about this unlawful switch. Volunteer for the campaign, donate time and/or money, convince friends and neighbors to vote for Forrester!

[BlackRazor]

Poll Ping!

If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!

[Coop]

Also, I think Forrester can gain some ground in the debates. Lautenberg is, to say the least, going senile.

If Laut's initial speech was any indication, he's going to be hard pressed to just keep his numbers from eroding during a debate. I imagine he will improve before then, but will it be enough? Concerning his age, I would just run a clip of Laut's own words, attacking that female Pubbie candidate for being too old. Then Forrester can point out that she was only (I believe) in her early 70s. Lautenberg's now 78. Concise, and drives the point home using Laut's own words.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Ms. Fenwick was then 72 (Laut was a young 58 back in '82), almost 7 years younger than he is now. She died in '92 at the age of 82 (and if Laut lives to be that old, it means he won't live long enough to complete half a term -- at least Milly could've served a term and 2/3rds). They might point all this out in ads (maybe showing shots of funeral homes and cemetery headstones).

[Mollygal]

some interesting quotes from "Outhouse Millie" - Millicent Fenwick - (Lautenberg ran against her mercilessly in a series of debates in 1982, and hinting the age card)...


quotes..

"The only people who would be in government are those who care more about people than they do about power."

"Never feel self-pity, the most destructive emotion there is. How awful to be caught up in the terrible squirrel cage of self."

"The curious fascination in this job [U.S. representative] is the illusion that either you are being useful or you could be -- and that's so tempting."

"I have come to believe that the one thing people cannot bear is a sense of injustice. Poverty, cold, even hunger, are more bearable than injustice."

"Women are on the outside when the door to the smoke-filled room is closed."

......

I especially like the injustice, power, and women quote...conjure up the image of corruption and the switch and bait tactic of the RATS...

.....

source: http://www.creativequotations.com/one/1129.htm

[eureka!]

Re#5 That's the key. Nice to see that the bump has receded. This one is going to the wire, now. *sigh* Let's see that cheaters never prosper, one more time...

[IMRight]

I think there's no question that this can still be a pickup. It's just no longer a sure thing.

Lautenberg's age is certainly an issue (especially if he raised it in the past) and will become evident in any debates. Better yet, it points out that there is no way to assure that NJ doesn't end up with Torch again except to elect Forrester. If Lautenberg decides to quit again, or becomes ill... what's to keep the Gov from appointing Torch to serve another two years?

[ncweaver]

Don't get mad. Get motivated

This SHOULD motivate the Republicans to get to the polls on Nov.5th and HOPEFULLY will keep many of the Rats home!

[coyotekid]

Waste of time. Forrester will have to win this on the issues and there's no way NJ voters are going to buy what he sells. I say divert resources to places like MN, SD or MO, where there's a real chance of winning.

[Coop]

There's only four weeks to go until the election, the man is tied or slightly trailing in the polls, and you say there's no way Forrester can win.

Amazing. [shaking head]

Fortunately the GOP does not agree with your assessment:
Leaders Rally to Aid Forrester.

[Marc Poor]

I don't think that it is a waste of time. Look, over the past decade, the democrats have averaged 48.9% of the vote in statewide elections (Senator, Governor), while republicans have managed 47.4%. Everybody considers New Jersey a democrat state, but republicans aren't routinely blown out.

Anyway, using these averages as a starting point, Forrester needs to either get 1 out of 41 normal democrat voters to stay home or vote third party, OR 1 out of 82 to flip and vote republican instead of democrat. (As a practical matter, we need about 1 out of 61 normal democrat voters to not vote for Lautenberg, half of these sitting out, and half flipping for Forrester). I don't think that it is too much to ask for, 1 out of 61 rank and file democrat voters to have a conscience.

[lasereye]

I don't see where the article says each candidate gets 42%.

[ultima ratio]

No need to bring up age in a debate. It will be self-evident. Forrester looks fit and alert. He has a pleasing personality and is not unduly abrasive. He would do best to zero-in on Lautenberg's record as senator. NJ was last in return on tax dollars during his tenure. He was also adamantly against the war in Iraq. Actually this is good news. I like our chances. Forrester has nowhere to go but up, whereas Lautenberg is already slipping.

[KQQL]

@

[princess leah]

Is there any way to keep the trucks filled with cigarettes and other " DNC incentives" away from polling places on election day? Maybe flatten their tires, or pull the spark plugs?