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Holden must be holding close to 80% of the Bush voters in his old district that voted for him last time against very weak opposition. I have difficultly believing it will that way on election day, but I am reducing Gekeas' chances of winning from 55% to 52.5%. They started out at 65%, one of the biggest percentage changes on my spreadsheet. I moved Shimkus down from 60% to 55%. Shimkus wasn't even on my spreadsheet at the beginning because I don't think much of Phelps, and the district has a clear GOP lean. That is why I still have Beauprez at only a 49% chance of winning although he is apparently leading in the polls. The district has a slight Dem lean, and that influences where I think things will end up. Granted, though, the closer we get to election day though, the more reliable polls have to count, although they are so dependent on projected turnout that it is still dicey.

This is bad news for GEKAS,,,I guess he over stayed in the congress.

CO is likely to go GOP...OWENS will carry the GOP in this race.
I put CD-CO 7 at 52% to the GOP.

IL race will be affected by the GOV race , so who knows what will happen in IL