[NeoCaveman]

I still think it is only the GOP's 4th best change of a pickup.

I see you have Wellstone at #2, who are the first and third most likely GOP pickups in your opinion?

[Torie]

Talent over Carnahan. The latter's problem is her relative incompetence versus one of the smartest nominees the GOP has mustered this cycle. If only Talent had a more folksy style and was not a corporate urban St. Louis lawyer (St. Louis is not the best place to be from when running statewide in Missouri; heck they pronounce the name of the state "correctly," while the provincials all say "Missoura"). Maybe she can hide it until election day, maybe not, but that is what makes this race a tossup.