[Torie]

Hey Dan, there is a debate an other site as to how many counties Pothusmas could expect to win while he loses. What number of counties could he expect to win if he loses statewide by 10%? My guess is about a dozen, but you are the expert.

[Dan from Michigan]

The UP and North East Lower Counties are extremely erratic. The West UP as a whole is democrat, but Bush won there, even Menominee and Delta which are big dem areas usually. NE swings, but leans more dem, and went about even up on 2000. Posthumus may make some gains there with a working man image against the elitist Granholm. John Cherry complicates things there. A true 'working man's' dem if there ever was one. I've met Cherry and I like the guy. I rather have it be a Cherry/Granholm ticket. Still would vote for Posthumus, but Cherry at least is pro-2a(and would probably get the gun endorsements).

Granholm is doing well in West MI(and struggling some in East MI), which is surprising. I expect the numbers to die down that way for her, and increase in the east. These are dem polling numbers too that get released(EPIC/MRC).

Out west, I expect Muskegon to go dem, with Calhoun and Kalamazoo likely to tilt dem this time. She does well there. Kent and Ottawa need big turnouts.

Saginaw Valley will go big with Cherry there. Saginaw and Genesee counties are strong dem strongholds anyway. Midland is solid GOP though.

The thumb won't vote for a Jenny type ever. St Clair loved Bonior, but the rest will go GOP, and St Clair might too. Went for Bush, barely.

Livingston needs a huge turnout. West and North Oakland needs to vote, and hopes that Southfield doesn't repeat 2000. Macomb will be key. West Wayne will be interesting since Lorne Bennett and Granholm are from the same area. Posthumus is supposedly running even up there, and winning Oakland.

This winnable. Detroit doesn't turnout in offyear like presidential races. That's the key right there. Is it going to be 300,000 votes there, or 180,000?