Posted on 08/29/2002 10:28:05 AM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
Des Moines, August 28, 2002 - An exclusive WHO-TV 13 and Survey USA poll has Doug Gross encouraged, the governor sceptical.
The statewide scientific was conducted on August 25th and 26th. The survey polled 592 likely voters in the Iowa gubernatorial race about Doug Gross and Governor Tom Vilsack with a margin of error of four percent. The poll shows 49 percent favor Gross and 46 percent would vote for Vilsack.
By gender, Gross leads among male voters while Vilsack has the female vote. The younger-aged voters favor Gross while older and generally more reliable voters are behind Vilsack. One of the most interesting statistics shows Gross with a slight margin among Hispanic voters.
Separate the race into quadrants and the survey shows Vilsack with a lead in the west and Gross in the east. Both candidates say this race will be one of the closest and most expensive in Iowa history and that the battle for the governor's chair is just getting warmed up.
The governor called into question the methods and accuracy of the poll. Survey USA responded and said their respondents are screened several times to make sure they are likely voters. Survey USA says their results are more accurate than other major polling companies, and overall they stand by their results.
This Survey USA poll has a margin of error of + or - 4.1%.
So, have I forgotten anything? At a quick glance the Pubbies seem to be in better shape than I thought at 2+ months out. They could conceivably only lose 1-2 seats, thereby holding the majority, and if things go quite well could even increase their seats. Things could also go south with a few incumbent Pubbies like Jeb in FL, Rowland in CT, or Perry in TX. Obviously we can argue back and forth over specific seats, but the GOP is in better shape that I once thought. Especially if it steals MD and/or CA. Your thoughts?
1.) I didn't realize Hodges might be vulnerable in SC. Is this expected to be a competitive race?
2.) Massachusetts is a potential pick-up for the Dems. Romney still leads, but I have a feeling this one is going to be tight.
3.) I was under the impression that OR, VT and KS were all extremely competitive races. Can anyone confirm or refute?
4.) You didn't list NH as a possible GOP pick-up. I was under the impression we had a real shot there.
5.) Just doing a real quick scan of the Political Oddsmaker, the GOP is currently favored in 17 races, the Dems in 14, and 5 more are toss-ups. I don't know who's incumbent in some races, though, so I'm not sure how that scenario would affect the overall balance of power. I'm also not sure how often these odds are updated. For example, the HI race was listed as a toss-up. I thought the GOP candidate had a significant lead there.
I can't find the data to support Hodges being vulnerable. Thought I had seen a poll, but if I did it did not make it into the spreadsheet. I'm sure I've seen it listed as a pick-up opportunity. The Political Oddsmaker list Hodges as having a 56.3% chance, so there's certainly some vulnerability there.
Vilsack comes from the east. He's better known. Evidently they don't like him.
Gross is from the west where most of the Republicans are. Seems when Gross really works the west, he has the most upside there. Bye, bye, Vilsack.
Gross has a really great ad running showing a truck (with "Vilsack" on the side sitting outside the Capitol. It shows him running out of the Capitol carrying bags of money and throwing them in the truck. Then the truck drives off. Then the question is asked: "Where did our money go"? Groups of people don't know and even a cow gets in on the act and the cow doesn't know. It's one of the best political ads I've seen.
I voted for Gross in the primary because I thought maybe he would be the best campaigner. I think maybe I was right.
For instance, does it really matter if Romney wins? Maybe he'd staff his administration with more competent, honest people instead of the hacks in a typical Dem administration, which is fine. But otherwise, he'd have no impact. The same's basically true of Simon and Ehrlich in MD, although that would be important at least for psychological reasons, since he's running against a Kennedy.
If John Kerry runs for President, would he be able to retain his Senate seat (ala Lieberman), or would he have to give it up (ala Daschle potentially)? Different states have different rules, and I don't know Massachussetts'.
Not really, not one for one. I've said for months that the Pubbies could lose the majority in gov mansions, yet still capture the headlines by winning in our largest states - CA, NY, TX, and FL. Maybe PA, if Fisher can turn things around. After reviewing things on this thread, I realize the GOP is in better shape than I initially thought. The recent governor trend, however, favors Dems. We'll see what November holds.
But when you look at it on a macro level, you'll be hearing the press harp constantly about how the Dems took over the majority of governorships if they hit the magical #26.
It is certainly true that not all governorships are equal. However, having the state machinery in place in every state that has a GOP governor will assist Bush's re-election.
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