Posted on 04/28/2002 5:55:41 PM PDT by KQQL
PA
Status Quo. In a odd reversal, a three-judge federal panel ruled last week that the Pennsylvania Congressional map drawn by the Republican-controlled legislature will be in place for the 2002 election and that the May 21 primary will not be moved.
Two weeks ago the same panel ruled by a 2-1 margin that the map allowed for too large a population deviation between the largest district in the state and the smallest.It threw the map back to the state legislature, which quickly tweaked the map to adjust the population deviation and approved a slightly-amended version.
In their latest ruling, the judges said that while the map remained unconstitutional in their view, it made little sense to reopen the filing period and move the primary date back in order to implement a newly approved map that would have little practical effect on the Congressional races in November.
The court will examine the newly approved map May 8 to see whether it is acceptable for the 2004 elections.
The map that will be in effect for this year's elections reduces the Pennsylvania delegation from 21 to 19 and forces three sets of incumbents to run against one another.
Rep. BillCoyne (D) announced earlier in the year that he will retire rather than face a primary race against Rep. Mike Doyle (D), as did Rep. BobBorski (D), who was drawn into the same district asRep. Joe Hoeffel(D).
Rep.Tim Holden (D) is running an aggressive race against Rep.George Gekas (R) in the redrawn 17th district, which tilts Republican.
In another Member-versus-Member race,Reps.FrankMascara (D) and John Murtha (D) will square off in the new 12th district. Mascara was drawn into the 18th district but decided his chances of re-election were stronger in the 12th.
The 18th district that Mascara vacated is one of two open seats created as a result of redistricting where Republicans believe they have the upper hand. State Sen.Tim Murphy is the consensus GOP candidate. Democrats have recruited Washington County Sheriff Larry Maggi for the race.
In the new 6th district, state Sen. JimGerlach (R) is the frontrunner even though Democrats scored something of a coup by getting Dan Wofford, son of former Sen.Harris Wofford (D), into the contest. ( Sons of Senators and congresmen don't win these days...ask Armey/Burton ..)
Start Your Engines. The New York Legislature began the process of redrawing the state's Congressional lines last week, signaling the start of one of the last significant redistricting tussles in the country.
NY
New York is slated to lose two Congressional seats after reapportionment, but from where those seats will come remains unresolved.
Early in the cycle most observers expected one seat to be eliminated fromthe upstate region and another from the New York City area, but slower-than-expected growth upstate has opened up the possibility that both seats will come from that region.
A number of Members who believe their districts are in jeopardy have taken matters into their own hands, led byRep.Amo Houghton (R), who has twice rejected retirement in order to lobby to save his SouthernTier 31st district.
Republican Rep. BenGilman (R) remains a potential target. Democratic Reps. Louise Slaughter, GaryAckerman, Eliot Engel, Maurice Hinchey and John LaFalce are all potentially vulnerable to the redistricting razor.
The majority of these Members have hired lobbyists with close ties to either state Assembly Speaker SheldonSilver (D) or state Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno (R) in order to monitor the process and push to save their respective districts.
Due to the New York Legislature's split-party control, the most likely outcome is that one Democrat and one Republican will see their districts disappear. Gov.George Pataki (R) has veto power over any plan that emerges.
Filing closes inNew York on July 11, and the primary is set for Sept. 10. Any plan approved by the state Legislature and Pataki must also be OK'd by the Justice Department in order to comply with the Voting Rights Act.
Kansas Dust-up.
The configuration of Rep.Dennis Moore's (D) 3rd district remains up in the air as the Republican- controlled Kansas House and Senate have passed maps that differ significantly in their approach to carving up the seat Moore has held since 1998.
The map approved by the state Senate takes all of Douglas County, including the city of Lawrence, out of Moore's district and places it into Rep.JimRyun's (R) 2nd district. The University of Kansas is based inLawrence, providing a Democratic bastion of support for Moore in his past elections.
Moore ousted then-Rep.Vince Snowbarger(R) with 52 percent of the vote in 1998 and won re-election with 53 percent in 2000.
Both physician Jeff Colyer and former Navypilot Adam Taff are competing for the Republican nomination this year.
"CongressmanMoore isn't going to support any map that takes Lawrence out of the community of interest that it shares with Kansas City," said Moore spokesman Jack Martin.
The map has created controversy within Republican ranks because it would split a nine-county area in southeastern Kansas between three Congressional districts.
One Republican state Senator called it "a grotesque gerrymander that only a political operative could love."
Despite the concerns, the Senate approved the map by a 21-19 vote. The Senate map now moves back to the House, which is out of session until May 1. Earlier in the year the House approved a plan that would move much of Douglas County out of the district but would keep Lawrence within the boundaries of the 3rd.
The likely result of the differing maps is a conference committee to settle the discrepancies.
Filing closes inKansas on June 24, and the primary is set for Aug. 6.
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Feeney Announces Bid For New 24th District
Surprising nearly no one, state House Speaker Tom Feeney (R) declared his candidacy for the newly created 24th district late last week.
The new district, located in east-centralFlorida, was drawn for Feeney by the state Legislature. It includes his hometown of Oviedo and is considered solid Republican territory.
Feeney gained a measure of fame during the 2000 presidential recount when he named electors for George W. Bush despite the uncertainty of the contest's outcome. Florida gained two seats following the 2000 Census, bringing its Congressional delegation up to 25.
Feeney has been raising money for a potential race for months. He has raised $506,000 for the race, with $443,000 on hand, through March 31. Attorney Harry Jacobs, another recount figure, is the only Democrat expressing interest in running in the 24th. Jacobs raised $105,000 fromJan. 1 to March 31 and loaned himself an additional $300,000 for the race.
Two other state legislators also worked to craft favorable districts for Congressional runs. State Sen.Ginny Brown-Waite (R) is running againstRep. Karen Thurman (D), and state Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R) is running for a newly created seat in southFlorida.
Clinton's prediction
Bill Clinton predicts that the Democrats will pick up 12 to 15 U.S. House seats in November's elections, which would be more than enough for the Democrats to take back control of that branch of Congress.
When asked about Democratic prospects by CNN's Judy Woodruff in an interview Wednesday, Mr. Clinton at first shied away from making a prediction, but then warmed to the subject.
"I don't know. I think it will be a close race. I think — the redistricting didn't change as many people as we thought. So we get about — I think we're about net down two or three in the redistricting, depending on what happens in Pennsylvania. But I think we can win somewhere between 12 to 15. I think the House will still be quite closely divided," Mr. Clinton said.
The former president then added this puzzling remark: "Even if we win, I think we have a pretty good chance to win." ( as they say..stupid is what stupid says )
223 GOP -----211 Rats ----1 Indpt...
Re-districting Update:-
For RATs:--- Al+1,GA+4,TN+1 MD+2,CA+1, NC+1,CO+1,AZ+1
*FL-1,*MI-3,PA-4,OH-2,IL-1,WI-1,MN-1,CT-1,MS-1,IN-1
Total= RATS net Loss of {-4}
In IN ...GOP loses one seat and gains 1 seat/ chocola = Net Gain of ZERO
Re-districting Update:- For GOP:--- Al-1,GA-2,OK-1,TN-1,N Y-1,MY-2, IN-1+1=0
*FL+3,*MI+2,MN+1,NV+1,PA+2,Oh+1,Tx+2
Total= GOP net gain of {+4}
*Maps in Fed Courts
New AZ 1 is 100% tossup..........
I think Johnson defeats Maloney in 53%-46% in CT
Pickering defeats Show in MS 55%-44%
Gekas defeats Holden by 53%-46%
one thing going against the RATS is the economy...it's improving fast........by nov 2002 , I say the USA will be in a better shape...
District 1 - Stupak 58-Opponent 41 - This seat is more dem now. Bush won it, but Stupak finds a way to survive each time.
District 8 - Rogers 55-Opponent 44 - Dems haven't even gotten an opponent for him yet. Rogers drops Washtenaw and Genesee, and picks up all of Clinton and GOP parts of Oakland County. No one wants to take him on. Rogers ran about 3 points ahead of Bush in 2000, and runs 5 points higher in Livingston County. This could have been close with a strong opponent.
District 9 - Knollenberg 58-Fink 41 - Knollenberg drops Southfield and picks up Troy. Picks up Pontiac as well. Drops GOP leans Livonia and Novi, and dem lean Redford. Picks up Rochester. He's still safe.
District 10 - Miller 56-Marlinga43 - Marlinga will want the gun vote, and isn't going to get it after his opposition to CCW. Real doubletalker and weasel IMO from listening to him. Miller could have beaten Bonior. Marlinga has lost every race he's run outside prosecutor. He's always running for something.
District 11 - McCotter 52-Kelley 47. This one could be closer. McNamara's people are going to dump a lot of money here, and never underestimate the name Kelly or Kelley. There is no name better for politics. McCotter is very popular though in Livonia, and while he could have troubles in more of the richer areas with his strong social conservative stances, he'll clean up in Livonia, his home base..and where most of the population is.
All other seats will be 20+ point blowouts except MAYBE district 15.
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