I think Ward has a better chance than people give him. Bill Hollister was a liberal and wasn't much different than Whitmer. In fact, he was a RINO. He barely won Meridian, and got killed in East Lansing. We all know what happens when the gop tries to out dem the dem. It's a recipe for disaster. Do you think East Lansing would back a GOP'er anyway? Only if Fieger is the dem. Ward is a solid conservative.
East Lansing will be tough. If Ward can make it up in Meridian and the new area - Williamstown Township(conservative rural area), there could be an upset. This is a off year election as well, and Michigan tilts more GOP during off year elections(has so at least since 1990). Redistricting helps some.
I have never met Whitmer ever. I have never seen her. I can not name one thing she has done for this district except vote against a gun bill. All she has done is yap at Paul DeWeese and saying he's against MSU. I know Paul DeWeese. Whitmer isn't fit to shine DeWeese's shoes, and she isn't fit to shine Larry Ward's shoes either.
As for Ward, this would be an upset win, but it is NOT impossible if the grassroots comes out. Whitmer is NOT that well known around here outside of a couple of very liberal extreme circles. MSU College democrats are weak this year as well. I didn't like Laura Baird at all, but she was always in the papers at least doing something. She had name recognition. Whitmer does not have the same recognition(I believe the Chamber of Commerce hates her guts as well).
Ward has the pro-life, pro-gun vote wrapped up. He also has much business experience as well. He is a former business owner and is currently a financial advisor. I'm confident he won't raise my taxes. He's owned a business in Massachusetts. He's doesn't want to see Taxachusetts come to Michigan.
The student vote is dilluted. By law, students must be registered to vote where their drivers license address is located. Since most students are dems, advantage us. Faculty is my big worry, but they pay taxes too.
Ward's website is here for those interested
The race will be tough, but is not impossible like the Lansing seat. It WILL take a strong grass roots effort to win though since the dollars are against us. If the business community thinks we can win, we can pull this off.