I think 2022 made this clear. every reason to expect ruling party to get drubbed, but they didn’t, except in florida, where they got very badly beaten (gop even won dade county for gov).
2020 was sloppy, forcing late-night ‘vote-count-stops’ etc. that won’t happen again.
if it wasn’t clear from the above, I believe Florida in 2022 represents actual voting trends nationwide before chicanery.