The good thing about this is that it was all of their faked polls that convinced Hillary and her cohorts not to cheat enough to win the 2016 election. When I get a call from a polster these days, I just assume it is either a fund raiser or a fake poll. I ask them to put us on their do not call list and hang up. Most Conservatives do this. Liberal idiots are the ones who like to participate in these “polls”.
You are on the right track.
The “experts” believed that blacks would turnout for Hillary in the same way they did for Obama. They “adjusted” the polls accordingly.
When you “adjust back” black turnout to 2004 levels you get a lot closer to the 2016 turnout.
Turnout is impossible to predict from polling—since what people say they will do and what they will actually do can be very different.
Part of the Obama “turnout” was cheating and part of it was real.
Pollsters are not comfortable admitting they are ignorant on such matters—if they did admit it they would make less money.
So—they double down on their stupidity.
Freepers should know the game by now.
(Since the Democrats are not going to nominate a black candidate—in all likelihood—low black turnout will doom them—again.)
(Key states Trump won at least partially because of low black turnout and the pollsters blew it—WI—low turnout in Milwaukee, MI—low turnout in Detroit, Flint, PA—low turnout in Philly.)