Sabato is a #nevertrumper. I don’t listen to anything he has to say anymore. He wants Trump to lose and lose badly. He’s trying to protect the GOPe.
“Because we recognized that pollsters in 2012, and again in 2014, seemed to be having a difficult time reading the electorate, specifically participants who were most likely to vote.”
Important statement from the article. Basicallly enthusiasm.
The money quote:
“In 2012, the model and methodology they are using, which was designed by the team behind the RAND Continuous Presidential Election Poll, or the “Daybreak Poll,” was was right when most other traditional random sample polls were wrong.”
This is its successor. They got it right in 2012 when every other poll erroneously pointed to a win for Mitt Romney. Liberals are doing the same things we did in 2012, playing fast and loose with party ID, ignoring the evidence in front of us and believing Obama could be beaten by a terrible GOP candidate. Our side then suffered from massive confirmation bias. Look at what the other side is doing now. Trying to drag Hillary over the finish line even though everything shows she will lose. Look at the trend since September.
Appears the Witch’s poll numbers collapsed on 9-11 when the Witch physically collapsed.
Yep. Not just because it had Trump up, but early on I began to suspect that this poll was the closest to accurate. That was in part because, lo and behold, the other polls looked just like it if they took their ridiculous D+10 samples out, especially Reuters.
Until Reuters decided it had to go Full Cankles, it was very much in line with this poll in its margins if not its percentages-—but it did swing much more wildly.
If Trump really is five points ahead of Hillary this close to the election, he is the likely winner.