Could disenchanted Pennsylvania voters win the state for Trump?

The Christian Science Monitor ^ | September 13, 2016 | Amanda Hoover

[HamiltonJay]

“I don’t share David Plouffe’s supreme confidence that Pennsylvania is guaranteed to be blue,” Braddock Mayor John Fetterman and former candidate in the state’s Democratic primary for Senate this year, told The Washington Post. “Without a doubt, it is one that’s going to be close.”

This guys an interesting dude... he’s the mayor of a distressed town that collapsed after the steel left.. .and has never recovered, even though his town is located next to the last Active Steel Mill in the area. He’s a democrat, tried to run for Senate this year... lost the primary... but he’s boots on the ground.

I tell you I don’t think PA is going to be close and I don’t see it going Hillary.... I just don’t see any organic support for her ANYWHERE. She’ll get the folks who always vote D, but that’s it and there is no motivation or enthusiasm from anyone to vote for her even the most hard core democrats can’t offer a reason to vote for her.. they just cough out platitudes like “Hillary lies 25% of the time, Trump lies 100% of the time”

I just don’t see her carrying Philly with nearly enough margin to overwhelm the absolute insane enthusiasm for Trump that is obvious everywhere.

Time will tell, but I really don’t see Hillary taking PA. Her behaviors are repugnant to the working class blue collar dems. They see her as a criminal and a liar who gets ahead on their backs... I think you will see her lose PA and not by a slim margin.

Trump supporters are willing to crawl over glass to vote for Turmp, not only that, but they will happily let 2 more people ride on their backs if they know they will vote Trump to make sure they get to the polls.

There is absolutely ZERO enthusiasm for Hillary... I’ve never seen anything like this at all for a candidate for either party...

[thingumbob]

From your lips to God's ear.....

Thank you for the local assessment in PA

[HamiltonJay]

Obama took PA by about 625k votes in 08, in 12 he got it by about 300k.

Obama isn’t nearly as popular here as he was 4 years ago, and Hillary is not anywhere near the popularity level here Obama is.. ANYWHERE....

2008 R got 2.655M votes, 2012 R got 2.68M votes in PA, and neither candidate remotely had any real enthusiasm.... So with no enthusiasm R’s can put up 2.6 to 2.7M votes in PA... Trump has more enthusiasm than ANY R has had in PA since I have lived here... moved here in 86... last win for an R was Bush I and he didn’t have the enthusiasm that Trump has here...

Hillary vote total will drop from Obama’s 2012 numbers by far more than Obama’s fell between 8 and 12... I really don’t see Hillary getting more than about 2.5-2.6M votes on the HIGH end.. I expect Trump to be closer to 3M in PA.

[DoodleDawg]

Could they? Yes. But it’s not going to be easy to accomplish.

[BobL]

The difference being this time that the Republican on the ticket is actually giving working-class Democrats a reason to cross over.

Never occurred to prior Republicans since Reagan did the same.

[thingumbob]

Grew up in Ohio around Cleveland area, and spent my summers as a child either in Southern Ohio or with my Grandparents in Youngstown right on the boarder of Pennsylvania. I know what you mean when they say that eastern Ohio effects Western PA. I've been watching that phenomenon for a very long time.

Hearing all that is happening now in PA regarding Trump makes me very happy.

[HamiltonJay]

I live in Pittsburgh, and I see zero support for Hillary at all here.. let alone any enthusiasm. Now don’t get me wrong, I am sure she’ll win Allegheny County, Dems always do, but Obama got it by 90k votes in 2012.. he got it by 101k in 08.

Hillary won’t see anywhere near Obama’s 2012 numbers anywhere in PA...

You have to come out of Philly HUGE as a D to win PA nationally... and while Harrisburg, Pittsburgh and Erie will almost always make their counties D.. the margin and vote totals of those 3 don’t get you a win... you have to absolutely OVERWHELM in Philly area... and I just don’t see Hillary getting nearly enough out of there even with the fraud that always happens in some Philly districts.

Time will tell, but there is no doubt Trump has more enthusiasm here than any R in over 30 years... and Hillary has bupkis in terms of enthusiasm or organic support. All she has are folks who would vote D no matter what, and even among those absolutely no enthusiasm at all.

[depenzz]

I’m in York County and there are to many TRUMP signs to count and not one Clinton sign in my travels around the county. We are traditionally Republican in the major elections.
Haven’t seen any bumper stickers to mention, none for Hillary, all TRUMP.

[HamiltonJay]

R’s always take the T, with the exceptions of Erie and Harrsiburg area.. which is why a D has to take Philly hard... and I just don’t see it happening.... I have found no organic or enthusiastic support for Hillary ANYWHERE I have gone in this state...

I can walk into areas that I know are predominantly liberal and democratic and can find absolutely no enthusiasm for Hillary anywhere. As I said most liberal folks I know who I know will show up on election day and will pull the lever for her, even they offer not enthusiasm or argument really for her... just these sort of internal rationalizations for voting for a criminal... “she likes 25% of the time, Trump lieks 100%” or “at least she’s not a racist”.. or things along those lines...

I really think at best Hillary can manage about 2.5M ish votes in PA, and that won’t get it done, R’s put up 2.6M + in the last two elections with absolute dogs with no enthusiasm for them on the ticket here... I really expect Trump to be closer to 3M votes in PA.

[thingumbob]

I remember the closing of those steel mills being constantly reported out of Wheeling west va during those childhood summers and I even remember the reports about the Marshall football team crash....so much bad news for all those people during the 70's.

I'm glad so many are finally realizing the empty promises of the democrats and giving themselves a different choice with a Trump candidacy. Hilary's continued lying only highlights the fact that the democrats words have no meaning.

I hope the impact of this continues until Election Day. I mean how many times do you have to be lied to before you realize they don't give a crap about you.

[snoringbear]

“So, where are all the coal miners and steel workers? Surely they’re not for Hillary? Nope, but they are in the West, not the East.”

Ok, thanks. But, still don’t understand why Pennsylvania is leaning Hillary. Especially being she is on record that she intends to completely shut down the coal industry.....

[x]

Coal and steel aren't the powers they once were in Pennsylvania. Plus, there are an awful lot of people in Greater Philly who don't have much to do with heavy industry.