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It's actually possible to determine his chances mathematically. The odds of him being selected by actually winning the most delegates is zero. So, he can only win the nomination by being selected on a second or later ballot in an open convention. How do we calculate that?

Well, first we have to determine the chance that Trump will not get 1237. I believe that is around 40 percent.

Then, multiply that by the chance that Cruz will be able to reach 1237 by stealing about 500 or more delegates from Trump's people and by getting the delegates who the establishment controls. He will also have to hold all of his own delegates. Odds of Cruz getting the nomination on a later ballot: 10 percent. The establishment will either make a deal with Trump or find someone to be the designated loser who will at least let the establishment keep control of the party.

Mathematically, Cruz's chance of being the nominee: 4 percent.

Suppose you are a dedicated Cruzbot and you think the odds of a contested convention are 50/50 and the odds of Cruz getting the nomination in such event are 50/50. That still yields a 25 percent chance of Cruz getting the nomination. And I hate to tell you, but both figures are wildly inflated. That is your best case scenario. 4 percent is more realistic.

For Trump on the other hand, start with a 60 percent chance that he gets to 1237. Then, even if he doesn't, he still has the best shot of anyone of winning on a second or third ballot. He only will need a few delegates to switch, and the deals will commence. Sadly, he will have to make some deals with the establishment, most likely. The establishment will deal with him because they know they have to find a way to try to coopt him if they want to keep their sweetheart deals.

Trump's odds of getting the nomination on a second or third ballot are going to be around 70 percent. He just needs a deal with Kasich, or Rubio, or a couple of state's delegates, and it's done.

So, Trump's odds are 60 percent plus a 70 percent chance of winning if the convention is open. That comes out to 60 + 28= 88 percent chance of Trump winning the nomination.

As for the general election, if it's not Trump, there is zero percent chance of the Republican nominee winning. An establishment clown, or Cruz (same thing, right?) will go down to ignominious defeat. So Cruz's ultimate chance of victory is zero, on top of his 4 percent chance of even being the nominee. Not too smart of him to pursue his scorched earth strategy, was it, Cruztafarians? Had he hitched his wagon to Trump, he would have either been VP or Attorney General, or just campaigned for him in exchange for support down the road. Instead, he wanted it all, and he wanted it now, and he will pay the price by becoming a footnote to the history of this campaign and to the history of the US Senate.