Trump Is Collapsing in Wisconsin: And that’s really bad for his delegate math

Slate ^ | March 30, 2016 | Jim Newell

[2ndDivisionVet]

Isn’t this the same Free Republic who cheered Walker’s every move for two years? Oh, but now he’s not solidly behind Don Trump?

[period end of story]

Whobio?

[2ndDivisionVet]

You can’t click on the link?

[map]

“the guy has been unravelling since he declared.”

He’s been number one since he declared. Don’t count your chickens just yet.

Romney and Jeb and Reince and Ryan and Walker and the Club for growth are quite formidable opponents. But wait and see.

Will they get their candidate over the finish line? Time will tell, but you know that Cruz, although their patsy, is not their man.

[BagCamAddict]

Roger Stone predicts:

Either Trump on first ballot, or Paul Ryan on fourth ballot.

[michelala]

If Trump doesn’t win on the first ballot some GOPe stooge like Ryan will win the nomination on the 3rd or 4th ballot. Romney and the other sleazebag GOP superfriends will throw Cruz away like yesterday’s garbage.

[Vision Thing]

Rancid Penis
Speaker of House ryan

It’s the Uniparty - Wisconsin Axis.

And they love teddy long time.

[Lakeshark]

Slate.

The humor in posting one outlier poll fifty different ways in one day, with the final article coming from a leftist site is beyond words.

And Cruz supporters wonder why we think they act as horrendously as their candidate.

[Gaffer]

Yeah...I could...the information is out there everywhere and what it says is that the ‘dire’ in the situation isn’t on the part of Trump. It is with Cruz. 88% of the remaining contests is next to impossible to get.

My comment was more directed at ‘who’ the site is being referenced and why in the hell we should care anything about their ‘interpretations?’

[ozaukeemom]

I am sure his priorities will differ from mine. But, I believe he will begin to overturn obamacare. I imagine he will set in motion a stop to the massive influx of foreigners. I believe he will work on getting our military back up to speed with the full support of the government and the people they represent. He is extremely experienced in economic matters and will likely get other business savvy people to work with him to get our economy back in shape. I hope he can get the racial BS addressed at some point, but the race baiters will make that tough.
Anything he does will take time. I do not expect miracles. But, I think he will get experienced people to work with him. That is what good CEOs do.

I imagine my response will be laughed at and torn apart. Yes, I am an LIV, a trumpette, whatever. Please remember it is after 2 AM.

[map]

“Unless the RNC monkeys with the rules, in which case Hillary wins.”

Yes. The RNC will monkey. Count on it.

[Ray76]

> there will be a second ballot, and Cruz will win.

Dream on.

[nathanbedford]

The new Marquette poll finds his favorability rating at 22 percent, compared with a 70 percent unfavorability rating. That is … bad? No. It would be an insult to the quiet dignity of the word “bad” to call that spread bad. A 22–70 favorability spread is in the mid- to high “holy shits.” Sure, that number includes all voters, not just Republicans. But if Trump has a 22 percent overall favorability and 30 percent of the Republican vote, that means there aren’t a whole lot of Republican primary voters out there for him to sway.

The author concedes that this stratospheric unfavorability ratio cannot necessarily be exported to the other forty-nine states but it gives us a baseline and it suggests a trend. I do not think Trump will get 1237 delegate votes going into the convention and I think he will try to buy delegate votes by cutting "deals" just to he bought politicians throughout his career.

If he buys enough delegates to get the nomination, his unfavorability ratings tell us that he will be slaughtered in the general election. There simply aren't enough white male voters to compensate for these daunting unfavorability ratios. Donald Trump is the most hated of all modern potential presidential candidates. When he goes down in the general election, he will take senators, representatives, conservatism and the country down with him. Hillary will nominate three or four leftist Justices who will finish us off in those areas that the Democrats themselves don't get around to.

The military will be virtually extinguished, the debt will strangle the economy, our enemies will attack from without and from with in. All of this for a misguided infatuation with a reality television, beauty contestant entrepreneur, a prize fighting promoter, a titty bar owner, a bankrupt gambling casino magnate, a grifter of vulnerable students and nutrition minded suckers, a brutal landlord, a deceiver of customers, a bully, a misogynist, a serial liar, a mountebank and a man thoroughly unworthy of the highest office in the world.

[ozaukeemom]

Could you tell me the first 5 things you believe Sen Cruz would do?

[WVKayaker]

Poor Teddy Bares. Teddy is a loser, and an alleged philanderer.

Vote Trump!

[Ymani Cricket]

The most delegates Cruz will get out of Wisconsin is 30. That includes the at large-bonus-RNC delegates (18).

The only thing he gets out of Wisconsin is bragging rights before he is wiped out mathematically by 4/26. At that point, he only stays in for a possible contested convention, in which Cruz will be thrown out like so much garbage by the GOPe or GOPe will cut him a deal for SCOTUS or VP. VP is a looong stretch though.

[Lakeshark]

A man who once had principles of intellectual honesty ought to know that Reagan's numbers against Carter in the polls of Spring 1980 were even worse than Trump's are now.

Aren't you glad we didn't listen in 1980 to that line?

I sure am.

Anyone who looks at today's polls concerning a November election and claims they show ANYTHING at all valid knows little about history.

Just ask Carter how his second term went.......

[Williams]

Absolutely correct Jim. Donald faltered during his time off the trail and in his Wisconsin kick off.

But he’s smart maybe the pendulum will swing back.

Just my opinion I think he needs to say defiantly his race is against the republican and democrat establishments, to regain the initiative.

But he’s trying to leave an opening to the GOP to cooperate.

[Richard Axtell]

I am one eyelash away from believing that Donald Trump will be the nominee... of a yet to be named third party. What will happen then, is anybody’s guess. Perhaps H. Ross. Perot will win.

[nathanbedford]

A man who once had principles of intellectual honesty ought to tell us what those "numbers" meant-were they Reagan's negatives or were they simply a poll of preferences?

Big, big difference