There are four scenarios here:
Scenario 1: Trump has a majority of the delegates
Scenario 2: Trump has more delegates than Cruz, but not a majority
Scenario 3: Cruz has more delegates than Trump, but not a majority
Scenario 4: Cruz has a majority of the delegates
Now, everybody can agree that in Scenario 1 or 4, the person who goes into the convention with a majority of delegates should win on the first ballot and be the nominee.
But in Scenario 2, there is no reason that Trump should necessarily be the nominee, just as in Scenario 3, there is no reason that Cruz should necessarily be the nominee.
If no candidate wins on the first ballot, there is a second ballot, and every delegate is free to vote as he wishes. Now, I would expect that the primary effect of this will be that the delegates committed to other candidates, such as Kasich, Rubio and Carson, will vote for one of the two top vote-getters, and there would be a victor on the second ballot, with almost all of the people at the convention voting for either Trump or Cruz.
That is the way the system works. It has been the way it has worked for as long as I can remember. I have no problem with it.
If Trump’s people want to guarantee he is the nominee, they need to work their butts off to make sure he walks into the convention with more than half the delegates. If they fail to achieve this, he might not be the nominee.
If the rule was that the person who goes to the convention with the most votes wins the nomination, that would be the rule. But that is not the rule. To insist that the convention behave as if that was the rule denies reality, and is changing the rules after the game has been played.
The problem with scenarios 2 & 3 is that the GOPe is doing everything they can to make sure 1 & 4 don’t happen. They have made it very clear that they DO NOT under any circumstances want to follow the voters wishes (unless the voters agree with them) and they will do what they can to avoid it. The GOPe should be advocating for all of their potential nominees to give the winner the best chance of winning in November. Not trashing them in hopes that Kasich keeps the top 2 from being the voters’ majority favorite. The other things they’ve done with delegates recently may be within the rules but they certainly don’t look good.
I’ll wait and see but the scheming has already started and won’t wait until the 4 scenarios at the convention.
It’s like intentionally calling the runner out at home when he’s safe in the 6th inning to avoid having to make a game ending bad call in the 9th when everyone’s looking more closely. They have a lot at stake though so a 9th inning bad call is still possible if they can’t avoid it.