Posted on 03/11/2016 3:22:35 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Yes, the big question is what happens if Kasich and Rubio drop out. I would imagine that a significant percentage of those supporters would gravitte to Cruz, but probably not all. There is the possible phenomenon of bandwagon voting. Still, a big variable.
But he is closer to it then anyone else and his strongest states are in front of him while his rivals strongest areas will be gone done after Tuesday. Yes Fl does matter a great deal.
2nd Choice polling shows Rubio/Kaisch voters go 2/3rds Cruz 1/3 Trump. Using that as a measuring stick can give you an ability to measure how Rubio/Kaisch exiting the race effect Trump/Cruz.
If that measurement is correct, and the polling in FL is correct, Trump still wins FL.
Polls show that about 75% of Rubio’s voters go to Cruz, some sulk, and maybe 20% go to Trump. ALL the polling I have seen gives Cruz crushing leads over Trump head-to-head, in state after state.
That would mean this thing won’t be over for a while, even if Trump is way ahead in delegates after Tuesday.
If Cruz is slightly ahead in terms of national preference, with still 40% of the delegates left to be chosen and a lot of those being winner take all, then Cruz could at least take it to the convention
“. . .Trump still wins FL.”
Yes, I think that is correct, particularly since at least a portion of Florida voters voted early. But in my opinion Rubio is probably going to stay in through Tuesday and Kasich I think is certain to do likewise. Kasich has no reason to drop out now.
Rubio is in an impossible situation. If he stays in he loses his home state and damages his future political ambitions in the state. If he drops out now he ticks off at least some of his supporters, looks like an even bigger wimp than he is and also damages his future prospects in the state. He might as well stay in and probably get humiliated rather than drop out and certainly be humiliated (unless the polling is wildly wrong).
I think it goes at least until the California Primary and probably longer.
Crazy stuff.
I am getting a lot of pressure to just “make a call” in my work. I don’t feel at all comfortable doing it, which Trump fans see as me being “in the tank” for Cruz, which IS my preference but doesn’t blind me to the reality that he is behind, and has some flaws to boot.
But it seems worse to just opine in March that Trump has it, and then have to go back to my readers in May and say, err, actually, I don’t really know.
Everybody shook hands with everybody else after the debate concluded. Trump and Rubio shocks hands.
Ben Carson endorsed Trump today. Is he a low info voter too?
As of today, soon will be what was tomorrow, and the math will be not twice but 8 times as bad because Trump will have around 800 and no one else will have 400.
If Trump wasn’t getting 100 to 400 percent increases in turnout, the GOPe would have finished him off by now using voting machines, articles about his wives, his dad, his inheritance, gossip about affairs he or his kids were having. Oh it would have worse than it is. But Trump is bring the TURNOUT like nobody would have thought possible.
That...... is the Elephant in the room. And the GOP likes the elephant.
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