Trump's Narrow SC Lead in Internal Poll May Be Reason He's Attacking Cruz

NewsMax ^ | February 15, 2016 | Greg Richter

[Idaho_Cowboy]

Do you post on DU too? I’ll bet they think you’re a hoot.

[Lib-Lickers 2]

you mean candidates don’t leak real polls,, they certainly would leak a fake poll to manipulate the voters into whatever they wanted them to think.. it’s a standard tactic when you are getting your A$$ handed to you

[dforest]

Already been posted....and posted ....and posted.....and posted.

This poll could also be a harbinger of a big cheat coming on.

[deport]

Four days hence and all the specualtion will decided.

Polling Data

Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Trump	Cruz	Rubio	Kasich	Bush	Carson	Spread
RCP Average	2/10 - 2/15	--	--	36.3	17.8	15.8	9.8	9.3	5.3	Trump +18.5
PPP (D)PPP (D)	2/14 - 2/15	897 LV	3.3	35	18	18	10	7	7	Trump +17
SC House GOPSC GOP	2/14 - 2/14	1300 LV	2.8	33	14	14	10	13	6	Trump +19
ARGARG	2/12 - 2/13	400 LV	5.0	35	12	14	15	10	2	Trump +20
GravisGravis	2/11 - 2/13	1281 LV	3.0	37	23	19	6	9	6	Trump +14
CBS News/YouGovCBS/YouGov	2/10 - 2/12	744 LV	5.7	42	20	15	9	6	6	Trump +22
Augusta ChronicleAug. Chronicle	2/10 - 2/11	779 LV	3.5	36	20	15	9	11	5	Trump +16

[gbscott1954]

Wow! A Trump guy who is honest and objective. I agree with most of what you said. I think the margin is somewhere at about 10% but has closed in the last few days and the trend is making it closer. I agree with you that a three way race favors Trump, while a two way race tends to favor Cruz. I also think that those states that are “open” primaries tend to favor Trump while the “closed” one favor Cruz. It is also possible, however, that a three way might lead to a contested convention, where both Cruz and Trump might get cheated!

I will disagree with you in that I think that the trend could move all the way into a Cruz win, which would be a disaster for Trump.

BTW, I think some of my fellow Cruisers have been unrealistic too, so hope you didn’t take offense at what I said at the beginning.

[FreeReign]

Two days old debunk poll.

I don't know if the poll is real or accurate, but the poll has not been debunked.

[FreeReign]

you mean candidates don’t leak real polls,, they certainly would leak a fake poll to manipulate the voters into whatever they wanted them to think.. it’s a standard tactic when you are getting your A$$ handed to you

Both tactics are possible, leaking a phony poll or leaking a real poll.

[Mozilla]

Cruz is doing the ads going after Trump. Can’t he respond? Or can only Cruz only after Trump? Why did Cruz not attack sooner then? Why was he pretending to be BFFs with Trump? Is Cruz believing all the stuff Levin, Beck, Lowry, Club for Growth and others say about Trump? Is the establishment helping Cruz go after Trump? I got a lot of questions.

[Mozilla]

Corrected an error.
Cruz is doing the ads going after Trump. Can’t he respond? Or can only Cruz go after Trump? Why did Cruz not attack sooner then? Why was he pretending to be BFFs with Trump? Is Cruz believing all the stuff Levin, Beck, Lowry, Club for Growth and others say about Trump? Is the establishment helping Cruz go after Trump? I got a lot of questions.

[PapaBear3625]

On Saturday evening we will know. Till then, I’ll be doing threads on different topics than SC polls.

[taildragger]

Interesting. Trump / Cruz have high 40's to 60's of the electorate in these polls. That is telling me that we are definitely in a throw the bum's out mood, however 40 something % still want a RINO, aka Kasich, Bush, Rubio with Carson at this point just skimming %5 off the top that would most likely go to Cruz. It is scary that we have that many mainstream "R's" willing to pull the lever again for the gestalt of the RNC /E-GOP, whole we here are so over them. Sadly, I didn't think it would happen, but we may in fact be headed for a brokered convention....

[MIA_eccl1212]

Ah... I see the problem.
Jeb forgot to insert the decimal point between Ted’s 2 & 4.
Problem solved.

[ripnbang]

Nah, it’s just the die hard Cruz supporters who cannot believe their candidate is a distant second, or possibly third in a state where they thought they’d be strong. Frankly, I’m a little surprised, too, but I also wouldn’t be surprised to see some tightening of the #s as voting day gets closer.

[Anitius Severinus Boethius]

I’m actually a Cruz guy. I just try to be objective in how I see the race.

[chris37]

That’s definitely true, but his internal polls were also waaaay off.

I have wondered if these internal polls are a way for candidates who have no chance to lie to themselves and their staffers or otherwise convince them to continue on when there is clearly no point in doing that.

I mean I wonder what Kasich’s internal polls say.

[deport]

That poll was a South Carolina perspective. The national polling has Trump, Cruz, Rubio in the
70% range with less than 30% split amongst the others. Trump about 10% in the lead among those
three. Nationally it is close but statewides are showing different.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

[sparklite2]

I am very doubtful of the “internal poll” notion.
While it might be useful for discovering niche issues, or for asking questions major polling doesn’t, when it comes down to “who will you be voting for,” the larger based, supposedly neutral polls, would seem to have smaller margins of error and thus be more accurate. For outsiders, which is what most of us are, using “internal polling” as the suspicion of campaign behavior is another face of “gut feeling” and conspiracy mongering.

[taildragger]

Thanks Deport, it is a closer race between the top three you mentioned. FWIW I think Rubio is so out of his league it isn't even funny. I have had a bad gut feel about this guy since early 12', and I am sticking by it....

[TornadoAlley3]

That is a poll of the Bush family. Thus internal.

[stocksthatgoup]

Jeb’s poll! We all love polls that agree with us. I agree with me all the time yet all too often I am wrong.