The macro theory is a bunch of crap. I don’t know one carpenter who has a new career.
Well, yes. It is crap when applied to particular people.
It does not take into account that the carpenters wife now needs to find work to make ends meet, etc. Or that the benefits, if any, are to someone other than the unfortunate carpenter. Maybe the real estate agent is making more money, improving median income.
But all that is beside the point over the last 8-9 years.