Posted on 12/19/2015 9:52:13 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Some things to keep in mind..
Iowa is NOT a real primary.
Barely 2.5% of Iowans will bother to attend republican caucus.
Iowa is not a big and expensive state to campaign.
Santorum won Iowa.
And Santorum won many more states later.
But he lost nomination because Romney beat him in all the large blue states.
Trump can finish 2nd in Iowa and it will not stop him.
On March 1st following states hold republican primaries.
It is akin to a national primary day.
Alabama
Alaska
Arkansas
Colorado caucuses
Georgia
Massachusetts
Minnesota caucuses
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Vermont
Virginia
On March 2nd, we will know who will prevail.
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/southern-gop-super-tuesday-could-be-2016-game-changer
Thank you Onyx and Entropy. Really excellent info and insights in both yours posts—much appreciated!
Well that’s it. Its over for Trump in Iowa and I guess NH and SC. I guess leading in all polls is just an illusion. Well it was fun while it lasted. :-)
Ahh, thx. :)
Ronald Reagan lost the Iowa caucus in 1980. George H.W. Bush won.
Reagan then went on to win New Hampshire by a margin of 2 to 1.
In 1988 Bob Dole won the Iowa caucus. Incumbent VP, and ultimate nominee, George H. W. Bush came in third.
In 1996 Bob Dole won in Iowa and ultimately won the nomination. He lost in the general election.
In 2000 George W. Bush won the caucus in Iowa, won the nomination, lost the popular vote in the general election but receive more electoral votes than John Kerry and was therefore sworn in as President.
In 2008 Mike Huckabee won the Iowa caucus. The ultimate Republican nominee, John McCain, came in fourth. McCain lost the general election.
In 2012 Rick Santorum edged out the eventual nominee Mitt Romney in Iowa by only 34 votes. Romney lost in the general election.
History shows if Trump does not place first in Iowa his “loss” will have no meaning except to the press and the GOPe who will proclaim the end of Trump. Likewise history shows if Trump “wins” Iowa, he will not necessarily win the nomination. If Trump can pull of a string of successive wins in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida he will have huge momentum and likely win most of the rest of the primaries because others will pull out as their donors disappear. If Trump loses Iowa and New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida become must wins. Trump is spending a lot of time in South Carolina.
Just an additional note of information:
The last two Presidents, Obama and Bush II, began their road to the White House by winning their respective Iowa caucuses.
Agree. I think Trump may still win Iowa but if not he will run the rest of the table. Ted Cruz good that he is just does not have the broad appeal to catch up. We are all in for Trump.
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