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And Jeb won’t get any more of the Hispanic vote than any other Republican. They may appreciate him speaking Spanish and all, that doesn’t mean they’ll pick him over the Rat candidate.

I agree. Are Jeb B’s followers now switching to B. Carson? They both love illegal aliens and are low energy.

And Jeb won’t get any more of the Hispanic vote than any other Republican.

Actually, he might. So might Rubio, for that matter. The Hispanic vote is NOT monolithic. For instance, Puerto Ricans and Mexicans often are quite different in their attitude and in their culture. This goes more for Cubans. There is also the under surface tension based on how much European blood is present (similar to the "High Yellow" tension among black people).

Trump will lose a lot of Latino votes because he makes broad, sweeping statements that are insulting, no matter how many asterisks and footnotes are placed at the end. So, he'll get 20% of the Hispanic vote instead of as much as 35%.

On the other hand, I think the polling showing 25% of the black vote is legit. In a strange way I think a lot of black people identify with Donald Trump. He lives like they picture themselves living with that kind of money. He lives large, loves being wealthy, "don't take no flack from nobody". This more than compensates for the loss of Hispanic votes.

Trump messes with all the numbers and makes it very hard for the numbers guys on both sides to figure out how to deal with him. He's cutting the apple from a different angle, one that there collective polling cannot yet account for, and won't be able to in time for the election.

I have been predicting a major party realignment for the last two decades now. The hippies have been over-represented for forty years now, with Obama representing the summit if that over-representation. Trump appears to be the catalyst that will cause a major reshuffling that will continue to play out over the next twenty years as the players get used to the new furniture arrangement.

No guarantees that the new arrangement will be any better than the old one. As of right now, smaller government does not seem to be in play . . . yet.