[Lake Living]

Didn’t you read:

Here’s one article:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2014/03/12/the-problem-with-modern-polling-in-one-chart/

Cruz is the best man, period! There’s still over a year left. I’ll wait. You can go ahead and trust the polls.

[tet68]

Shouldn’t the question be...
Can the top tier catch up to
Ted Cruz???

[Jack Black]

Yeah, sure I read that. But I've heard it for years, but it practice that theory is wrong, and the polls continue to accurately predict results to an almost scary extent.

For instance, here are stats for Nate Silver from the article about him at WIkipeida:

In the 2012 United States presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, he correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia.[11] That same year, Silver's predictions of U.S. Senate races were correct in 31 of 33 states; he predicted Republican victory in North Dakota and Montana, where Democrats won.

Now I agree that polls this far out in GOP primaries can not predict winners. I have argued that can probably predict losers pretty accurately. Bobby Jindal and John Kasich and Carly Fiorina are not going to win the nomination.

But the demise of polls based on cell phones is a vastly oversold meme.