yes. if the nation had shifted about 4% more Republican in 2008 homogenously ... CO IA NH would have decided the race with McCain needing 2 of the 3.
which begs the question why focus on NC and such states? certain states only are a tossup if the race goes big for the DEMS nationally. if a state cannot be a deciding state, why focus on it? 2012 was much more complicated with numerous states having the potential to be the deciders. (FL and OH have dropped off the list ... they are now more GOP than the national average.)
2012 Romney woulda been stuck at 266, 4 short needing one more state. One of the following:
state ..... margin
1.Colorado, 5.37%
2.Pennsylvania, 5.39%
3.New Hampshire, 5.58%
4.Iowa, 5.81%
5.Nevada, 6.68%
6.Wisconsin, 6.94%
perhaps Wisconsin and Mormon Nevada outperformed due to Mitt-Ryan ticket. Pennsylvania may very well be a genuine swing now with the war on coal.
The thing is, states don’t always move homogenously, so doing all your campaigning in NH, PA, CO and IA and picking up one or more of them won’t guarantee that you’ll carry NC, VA, FL and OH.