I have been writing for quite a while that there are three factions in the GOP: the conservatives, the libertarians, and the Aristotelians (aka GOPe). For a Republican to win the White House, s/he must coalesce two of these factions; otherwise enough GOP-leaning voters will stay home to give the WH to the Democrats.
Reagan won in 1980 because he coalesced the conservatives and libertarians, and while the GOPe despised him, his sop of having GHWB on the ticket was enough to keep them from actively sabotaging his campaigns. Bush 41 won in 1988 because enough conservatives and libertarians were willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, and lost in 1992 because he had betrayed them—after-the-fact polls show that even without Perot, Clinton would still have won the election. Dole in 1996 ran with the strong support of only the GOPe, and lost. GWB lost the popular vote in 2000, won the election only because he convinced enough conservatives that he was one of them, and convinced enough GOPe-ers that he could keep the conservatives at bay. McCain could have coalesced the conservatives and the GOPe, if only he had let Palin be Palin, and Romney let the conservatives slip through his fingers by not continuing to take the fight to Obama after the first debate.
It is no accident, I think, that the three standard-bearers as presently constituted are Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Jeb Bush, representing the conservatives, libertarians, and Aristotelian GOPe, respectively. The only candidate who could coalesce the conservatives and libertarians a la Reagan is Sarah Palin, but a Cruz/Paul ticket might have the same effect—it wouldn’t work the other way around, because Paul’s isolationism won’t sit well with enough conservatives. In short, what the GOP needs is a figuratively-smoke-filled back room, where the conservative and libertarian faction leaders coalesce around a Cruz/Paul or a Palin/Cruz ticket, and then meet the GOPe’s choice (probably Jeb, perhaps Christie) on the primary battlefield.
Junk.
First off—open primaries are killers. Get rid of them, or get bad candidates, it’s really one or the other.
Secondly—ever hear of a guy named Ronnie? HE got us only forty-nine of the fifty-seven states, is all. Why begin your rant at 1996? Politics began long before that.
AND-Sara who?
Wrong, wrong, wrong. This is essentially what happened in 2008. It wasn't a smoke filled room, but the evangelical movement (via Dr. James Dobson) attempted to narrow the field of more conservative candidates to coalesce around just one.
One by one, those that cared to court the evangelical vote - Newt, Fred Thompson, Alan Keyes, Duncan Hunter and Mike Huckabee - visited with Dobson to "kiss his ring" and seek his blessing. The more moderate candidates - Giuliani, McCain & Romney - and libertarian Ron Paul chose not to make that pilgrimage. Shortly after these visits, a story "leaked" that Dobson "didn't think Fred Thompson was a Christian" which Huckabee used to great advantage. Dobson never refuted the statement, but denied being the source of the leak.
Thompson, who was near the top of GOP polling, lost steam heading into southern state primaries. Huckabee, a social conservative with more moderate views on taxes & immigration, and McCain benefited from Thompson's decline and drop from the race. "Dobson's Choice" turned a wide-open GOP race into a 3-man battle - Romney, McCain & Huckabee - which left intelligent conservatives without a real choice and killed conservative enthusiasm for any GOP candidate until after eventual nominee McCain selected Sarah Palin as his VP nominee.
Let's not repeat that error. Let the campaigns battle it out on ideas. I really don't want politically inept people like Dobson making my choices for me.