The problem with Ohio is the minority depended population is growing exponentially in the inner cities. Cleveland,Toledo,Dayton, Columbus,Akron, and Cincinnati have changed dramatically over the last ten years in demographics. Just look at these cities mayors. The college towns will also go for Obozo like Cincinnati, Columbus, and Athens county. We have to have motivated republican voters to win and pray for rain.
Per the 2010 census (wiki) the racial breakdown of OH is
White: 82.7% (Non-Hispanic Whites: 81.1%)
Black or African American: 12.2%
All of the 12.2% of ‘Obama types’ are not voting age and of those that are, many don’t bother to vote. Not sure how much of a factor they are. Of whites, there are the unions and college campuses, the traditional Democrat strongholds. Again, college campuses by themselves aren’t that much of a factor if the rest of the state is motivated to vote. So it’s down to middle income whites - non college affiliated and both union and non union. Middle income whites are trending Romney nationally and if that is an indication, I think by mid to end of next week Romney will be 2 to 3 points up in OH.