“If this report is true, Romney wins under the following scenarios:
...”
If the report holds true, Romney is at 262. So he wins if
1.He wins Ohio.
2.He wins Wisconsin.
3.He wins 2 out of 3 of New Hampshire, Iowa and Nevada.
4.He wins either Iowa or Nevada + 1 electoral vote from Maine (assuming he gets the at large Nebraska EV, and assuming he wins a tie of 269-269 based on a GOP house).
I wonder what his chances are in for that Maine EV. Wonder if they’re running any ads in Maine?
I saw a poll the other day that had Romney up in ME-01.
Oops. I had NM colored wrong. He’s at 257, not 262, so needs 12 more. That’s either
1.Ohio
2.Wisconsin + one other state
3.Nevada + Iowa
Maine EV doesn’t matter. NH only matters if Romney wins Wisconsin but loses Ohio.
Seems unlikely Romney would win without Ohio, however.