Agreed. The polls are being used to try to disqualify Romney before the debates even start. The media hopes it is a self-fulfilling prophesy. Only our side can make sure it is not by working hard, talking to our friends and colleagues, and voting.
I have no doubt this race is tight, and I think Obama likely has a slight edge at this moment in the key swing states, but he also is sitting well below 50%, and Romney has a clear path to win. I think these polls are under-measuring enthusiasm and turnout on our side. There is no less motivation today than in 2010.
I think they are also over-estimating Democrat and leaning-Dem turnout, especially in the mid-western states, VA, and FL. There simply is not high enthusiasm for Obama, and it will impact turnout. They’ll get their base out, but not all the voters that came out last time. Some will stay home, or vote Romney.
If you remove all the top level results - national and state poll results, and look at all the underlying numbers, none of it looks good for Obama. He is down in all key groups - Jewish, Young, Catholic, etc. He is almost universally losing independent voters.
When you consider a motivated GOP base, a Romney majority of independents, and all the voter loses in key groups (not to mention changes in registration), it seems like a good scenario.
Yet, somehow the polls reported after going through the polling methodologies show a whole different picture.
Obama does not have an edge in the key swing states.
Not "somehow". This is all a very deliberate, and well planned operation from the Obama campaign. They defined what the turnout models percentages should be used, and when. When Gallop used their own numbers instead, they were taken to task and spanked. This is all a well planed manipulation that is PHONY as the day is long. All independent, objective data points make a mockery of what these MSM and leftist university polls are supposed to be telling us.
It's a lonely existence fur shur.
How such an amorphous indefinable unknowable group could have become a demographic is a great mystery.
Some could say the same about "Women" since they appear to have replaced Independents in the lexicon of the professional 'newsies'.
But, we digress.
Frankly, I don't believe independents exist. Sure, somebody will say they are one just to satisfy the prurient demands of some pollster, but are they really? I think it's more about the ROBOCALL PLAGUE
We had a member of the household accept a blind call ~ not realizing this was a pushpoll that member participated just for yucks. 'Yes, oh, yes ~ we love that Bama guy" ~ and that's where it went down hill.
The Democrats logged the number and it went into the file for later use ~ that being the Democrat DNC, National, State, District, and Legislative ROBOCALL files!
The machine had our phone number and wouldn't let go ~ first, it was just a couple of calls every other day a few weeks before the election, and it was this Barker dude running for the Virginia Senate. But then as each successive group in the Democrat stable that funds or helps candidate's logged in, it became 3 on Tuesday, and 8 on Friday, and a couple on Sunday.
One day it got up to 10 and I thought it couldn't get worse ~ but it did. It was on a weekend and this ol'gal knocked on the door and said she was passing out Democrat literature ~ pretty obvious she was a retired school teacher ~ had that hard-bitten "I Done Been Beatin' On 8th Graders Too Long" look. So, I Asked her, what can you do about Barker's robocalls ~ that I used to think he might be a reasonable man but lately I"d been getting these urges to DO SOMETHING ~
Well she got that wide eyed look Democrats get when they begin to feel they aren't welcome and began to look around for somewhere to hide. That's when i Invited her in to talk about this and she leaped off the porch almost to the sidewalk.
Offered her a beer as she ran away, but she was having none of that ~ her confederates picked her up in a car and skedaddled out of the neighborhood never to be seen again.
Alas, the robocall intensity increased to between 17 and 35 calls per day, and continued on into the post election vote counting.
I do not think I was alone in noticing that the Democrat ROBOCALL system was out of control.
Recently I read that the number of new registered independents is fairly equal to the number of lost registered Democrats, so could it be the Democrats tortured their own peeps?
That can't be all that good for get out the vote efforts, but even if they do show up does anyone really think these guys will vote Republican?