“Assumption one is demonstrably wrong. Bush/Gore. TV reports Gore has won and voters in the panhandle of Florida don’t vote.”
This is somewhat apples and oranges. It’s one thing to not vote when you find out on election night that the media is projecting that your guy lost. Psychologically, you’re thinking that they’re counting actual votes with hard numbers (though not technically true, they’re relying on exit polls mostly).
It’s another thing entirely to have a questionable poll going against you a couple weeks before Election Day.
The latter is way more likely to make you motivated to vote than the former.