By your count ignores realities. 1st thing is advertising has been pulled in MI and PA. Like with everything follow the money. WI has had some small superpac buys but nothing from Romney yet.
The democrats bounce out of the convention is huge. Nate Siler (yes I know he is liberal) who nailed 08 and 10 elections has Romney with a 20% chance only as of today. Stories have leaked from the Romney campaign today internal trackings show a high single digit lead for Obama in Ohio which would all but finish Romney.
I have been posting all summer how the Romney campaign should be prosecuted for political malpractice. The democrats have been doing all the messaging. The economy still poor and you can’t move the needle at all? Between taxes, Bain, and women’s issues Romney has been responding ( and not very well) all summer.
We get to the conventions and if it was not obvious before it was certainly obvious in Tampa, WE DO NOT LIKE ROMNEY. There was no enthusiasm for this horrible candidate that was picked by the party elders.
We of course make jokes but the democrats love Obama. There convention was enthusiastic and very well managed with every speaker and issue framed as they wanted. Look I like Christie but his speech was about him not electing Romney.
The convention bounce will end up being 5-7 points. With those numbers we are in 08 territory. I will work for local and state candidates. In my opinion Romney is done. The race was lost in the summer.
Wrong.
Romney has a huge war-chest he’s only now allowed to use.
Lighten up. And support our guy.
Not to mention his (fabulous) VP candidate. :D
Nate Silver is one of the JOURNO Listers. And he has been working overtime the past 48 hours to spew out all sorts of stuff that Romney trailing in the national polls by 2-3 points means the race is over.
I realize Nate is hard pill to swallow since he’s generally been right on polls. But at the moment people need to tune him out. He’s like Toyko Rose of late, sending out broadcasts that conservatives don’t need to bother to vote this year since supreme commander Obama will mow us all down.
I’m not going to confidently predict that Romney will win. But he’s not a charismatic candidate that people are flocking to like they did the messiah in 2008, thus he isnt going to be showing tons of polling strength. Nonetheless, come November 6, there are going to be millions and millions of us marching to those voting boths and casting a ballot for him.
The Nate Silver’s of the world don’t quite understand the depth of frustration with Obama out here in fly over country. I think they will in 60 days.